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Álvarez vs Crawford 13 Sep 2025 Result: Crawford Historical Pick 65.30% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Terence Crawford (U D)

Model pick Terence Crawford 65.30%

Prediction result Correct

Álvarez odds 1.6452

Crawford odds 2.6500

Álvarez implied 60.78%

Crawford implied 37.74%

Pick odds 2.65

Pick implied 37.74%

Expected return 1.7305

ROI 73.05%

Edge 27.57%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:19:49 UTC

Fighter details
Canelo Álvarez
Canelo Álvarez

Score 80.22 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Full name Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán

Age 35 · Rank #11 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Terence Crawford
Terence Crawford

Score 81.56 · 42-0-0 (31 KO)

Full name Terence Allan Crawford

Age 38 · Rank #1 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Southpaw · H/R 173cm / 188cm · US

The Ring Super middleweight

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

86.5 Crawford Confidence High 0.840

Punching Accuracy

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

88.8 Crawford Confidence High 0.860

Hand Speed

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

88.4 Crawford Confidence High 0.790

Pace Pressure

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

84.8 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.720

Defensive Skill

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

88.8 Crawford Confidence High 0.820

Distance Footwork Control

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

88.2 Crawford Confidence High 0.800

Ring Iq Adaptability

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

89.1 Crawford Confidence High 0.900

Counter Punching

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

89.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.880

Chin

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

87.6 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.650

Cardio Engine

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

87.6 Crawford Confidence High 0.770

Style Profile Álvarez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Crawford: Boxer-Puncher Counter-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

8.0 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.530

Out Boxer

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

18.0 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.730

Power Slugger

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

12.0 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

37.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.860

Counter Puncher

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

25.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.780

Stance Advantage Álvarez Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Crawford Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

44.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.750

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

56.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.750

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Álvarez

100 Crawford

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Álvarez

33.33 Crawford

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Álvarez

33.33 Crawford

Opponent Rating Last 3

71.73 Álvarez

73.81 Crawford

Trend Score Last 5

80 Álvarez

100 Crawford

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.26 Álvarez

100 Crawford

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30 Álvarez

55.13 Crawford

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Álvarez

33.33 Crawford

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

71.73 Álvarez

73.81 Crawford

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Álvarez

100 Crawford

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Álvarez moves down 1 class.

Crawford moves down 1 class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Álvarez height: 171.0cm reach: 179.0cm

Crawford height: 173.0cm reach: 188.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Crawford.

Advantage: Crawford +11.0cm

Stance Interaction

Álvarez vs southpaw: 42.0

Crawford vs orthodox: 44.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Crawford style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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