Canelo Álvarez vs Liam Smith

Data as of: 2026-06-10 01:53:32 UTC Historical result As-of 2016-09-17

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Álvarez vs Smith 17 Sep 2016 Result: Barragán Historical result Pick 65.26% Prediction: Correct Super welterweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Santos Barragán (KO)

Historical lean Canelo Álvarez 65.26%

Prediction result Correct

Álvarez odds 1.0909

Smith odds 8.7500

Álvarez implied 91.67%

Smith implied 11.43%

Closing odds 1.0909

Closing implied 91.67%

Expected return 0.7119

ROI -28.81%

Edge -26.41%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical result

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 13:13:53 UTC

Fighter details

Canelo Álvarez

Score 80.24 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Full name Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán

Age 35 · Rank #11 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Liam Smith

Score 65.92 · 33-5-1 (20 KO)

Full name Liam Mark Smith

Age 37 · Rank #278 · Confidence Medium 0.675

Stance Orthodox · H/R 177cm / 175cm · GB

Canelo Álvarez

Full name: Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #11
Current model score: 80.24
Fighter confidence: High 0.774
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 171cm / 179cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 63-3-2 (39 KO)

17 Sep 2016

Confirmed Result

Result

Barragán

Historical result

100% Álvarez

0% Smith

Fight result: Santos Barragán (KO)
Historical lean: Canelo Álvarez 65.26%
Prediction result: Correct
Historical win probability: 65.26%
Closing odds: 1.0909
Closing implied: 91.67%
Expected ROI (1u): -28.81%
Value edge: -26.41%
Lean assessment: No Value

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 13:13:53 UTC

Liam Smith

Full name: Liam Mark Smith
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #278
Current model score: 65.92
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.675
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 177cm / 175cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 33-5-1 (20 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

68.4 Smith Confidence High 0.790

Punching Accuracy

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

69.8 Smith Confidence Medium 0.700

Hand Speed

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

62.3 Smith Confidence Medium 0.610

Pace Pressure

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

81.8 Smith Confidence High 0.800

Defensive Skill

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

68.3 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

Distance Footwork Control

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

62.8 Smith Confidence Medium 0.620

Ring Iq Adaptability

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

71.6 Smith Confidence Medium 0.740

Counter Punching

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

76.5 Smith Confidence Medium 0.660

Chin

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

62.2 Smith Confidence Medium 0.730

Cardio Engine

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

64.4 Smith Confidence Medium 0.710

Style Profile Álvarez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Smith: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

26.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

Out Boxer

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

8.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.550

Power Slugger

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

18.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.660

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

34.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.730

Counter Puncher

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

14.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.520

Stance Interaction Álvarez vs orthodox · Smith vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

62.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.670

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

38.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.670

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Álvarez

33.33 Smith

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Álvarez

33.33 Smith

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Álvarez

33.33 Smith

Opponent Rating Last 3

71.73 Álvarez

76.8 Smith

Trend Score Last 5

80 Álvarez

60 Smith

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.26 Álvarez

61.11 Smith

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30 Álvarez

43.06 Smith

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Álvarez

33.33 Smith

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

71.73 Álvarez

76.8 Smith

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Álvarez

70 Smith

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Álvarez moves down 2 classes.

Smith moves down 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Smith.

Advantage: Smith

Height Reach Delta

Álvarez height: 171.0cm reach: 179.0cm

Smith height: 177.0cm reach: 175.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Smith.

Advantage: Smith +2.0cm

Stance Interaction

Álvarez vs orthodox: 58.0

Smith vs orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Smith style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral