Canelo Álvarez vs Callum Smith

Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using inferred fighter division: Middleweight. Change this if needed.

Custom Matchup

Using selected fighters with persisted profile data. Choose matchup weight class before running.

Álvarez vs Smith Winner: Álvarez 74.88% ROI: N/A Tap to expand

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Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using inferred fighter division: Middleweight. Change this if needed.

Bout details

Álvarez odds N/A

Smith odds N/A

Álvarez implied N/A

Smith implied N/A

Pick odds N/A

Pick implied N/A

Expected return N/A

ROI N/A

Edge N/A

Lean No Odds

N/A

Fighter details

Canelo Álvarez

Score 79.30 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Age 35 · Rank #11 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Callum Smith

Score 63.92 · 31-2-0 (22 KO)

Age 35 · Rank #138 · Confidence Medium 0.619

Stance Orthodox · H/R 191cm / 198cm · GB

Canelo Álvarez

Age: 35
Fighter rank: #11
Current model score: 79.30
Fighter confidence: High 0.774
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 171cm / 179cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Projected Win Split

Winner

Álvarez

75% Álvarez

25% Smith

Win probability: 74.88%
Market odds: N/A
Implied probability: N/A
Expected ROI (1u): N/A
Value edge: N/A
Lean assessment: No Odds

N/A

Callum Smith

Age: 35
Fighter rank: #138
Current model score: 63.92
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.619
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 191cm / 198cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 31-2-0 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Profile source: Álvarez FiteQuant · Smith FiteQuant

Punching Power

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

86.0 Smith Confidence High 0.790

Punching Accuracy

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

73.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

71.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.540

Pace Pressure

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

66.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.560

Defensive Skill

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

72.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.600

Distance Footwork Control

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

79.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

Ring Iq Adaptability

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

78.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter Punching

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

74.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.550

Chin

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

68.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

Cardio Engine

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

75.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.660

Style Profile

Álvarez: Boxer Puncher · Smith: Boxer Puncher

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

10.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.410

Out Boxer

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

25.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.660

Power Slugger

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

22.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.710

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

33.0 Smith Confidence High 0.790

Counter Puncher

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

10.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.340

Stance Advantage

Álvarez: Vs Orthodox · Smith: Vs Orthodox

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

62.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

38.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

66.67 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

33.33 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

0 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Opponent Rating Last 3

71.73 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

67.47 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Trend Score Last 5

80 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

80 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.26 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

81.67 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

51.67 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

0 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

71.73 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

67.47 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

80 Smith Confidence High 1.000

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Álvarez stays in class.

Smith moves down 2 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Álvarez.

Advantage: Álvarez

Reach vs Height Delta

Álvarez reach: 179.0cm height: 171.0cm delta: 8.0cm

Smith reach: 198.0cm height: 191.0cm delta: 7.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Álvarez.

Advantage: Álvarez

Stance Interaction

Álvarez advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Smith advantage against orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Smith

Style Interaction

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Smith style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral