Canelo Álvarez vs Callum Smith

Data as of: 2026-06-07 00:34:08 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using inferred fighter weight class for this comparison. Change this if needed.

Álvarez vs Smith Model lean: Smith Custom 53.52% ROI: N/A Super middleweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using inferred fighter weight class for this comparison. Change this if needed.

Bout details

Model lean Callum Smith 53.52%

Álvarez odds N/A

Smith odds N/A

Álvarez implied N/A

Smith implied N/A

Pick odds N/A

Pick implied N/A

Expected return N/A

ROI N/A

Edge N/A

Lean No Odds

Bout Custom

Fighter details

Canelo Álvarez

Score 78.57 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Full name Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán

Age 35 · Rank #11 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Callum Smith

Score 66.33 · 31-2-0 (22 KO)

Full name Callum John Smith

Age 36 · Rank #178 · Confidence Medium 0.624

Stance Orthodox · H/R 191cm / 198cm · GB

Canelo Álvarez

Full name: Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #11
Current model score: 78.57
Fighter confidence: High 0.774
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 171cm / 179cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Smith

Custom

46% Álvarez

54% Smith

Model lean: Callum Smith 53.52%
Win probability: 53.52%
Market odds: N/A
Implied probability: N/A
Expected ROI (1u): N/A
Value edge: N/A
Lean assessment: No Odds

Callum Smith

Full name: Callum John Smith
Age: 36
Fighter rank: #178
Current model score: 66.33
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.624
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 191cm / 198cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 31-2-0 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

84.0 Smith Confidence High 0.790

Punching Accuracy

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

74.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.650

Hand Speed

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

69.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.580

Pace Pressure

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

68.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

Defensive Skill

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

71.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.640

Distance Footwork Control

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

80.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.720

Ring Iq Adaptability

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

78.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.690

Counter Punching

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

73.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.590

Chin

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

67.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.620

Cardio Engine

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

75.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

Style Profile Álvarez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Smith: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

10.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.460

Out Boxer

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

28.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.720

Power Slugger

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

24.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.740

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

32.0 Smith Confidence High 0.800

Counter Puncher

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

6.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.330

Stance Advantage Álvarez Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Smith Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

58.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.550

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

42.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.410

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Álvarez

66.67 Smith

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Álvarez

33.33 Smith

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Álvarez

0 Smith

Opponent Rating Last 3

71.73 Álvarez

70.32 Smith

Trend Score Last 5

80 Álvarez

80 Smith

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.26 Álvarez

81.67 Smith

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30 Álvarez

51.67 Smith

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Álvarez

0 Smith

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

71.73 Álvarez

70.32 Smith

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Álvarez

80 Smith

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Álvarez stays in class.

Smith moves down 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Álvarez.

Advantage: Álvarez

Height Reach Delta

Álvarez height: 171.0cm reach: 179.0cm

Smith height: 191.0cm reach: 198.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Smith.

Advantage: Smith +39.0cm

Stance Interaction

Álvarez vs orthodox: 58.0

Smith vs orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Smith style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral