Canelo Álvarez vs Edgar Berlanga

Data as of: 2026-05-14 00:41:51 UTC Historical As-of 2024-09-14

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Álvarez vs Berlanga 14 Sep 2024 Result: Barragán Historical Pick 89.19% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Santos Barragán (U D)

Model pick Canelo Álvarez 89.19%

Prediction result Correct

Álvarez odds 1.0714

Berlanga odds 10.0000

Álvarez implied 93.34%

Berlanga implied 10.00%

Pick odds 1.0714

Pick implied 93.34%

Expected return 0.9556

ROI -4.44%

Edge -4.15%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:20:49 UTC

Fighter details

Canelo Álvarez

Score 80.08 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Full name Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán

Age 35 · Rank #13 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Edgar Berlanga

Score 51.71 · 23-2-0 (18 KO)

Full name Edgar Luis Berlanga Jr.

Age 28 · Rank #425 · Confidence Medium 0.546

Stance Orthodox · H/R 185cm / 185cm · US

Canelo Álvarez

Full name: Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #13
Current model score: 80.08
Fighter confidence: High 0.774
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 171cm / 179cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 63-3-2 (39 KO)

14 Sep 2024

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Barragán

Historical

89% Álvarez

11% Berlanga

Fight result: Santos Barragán (U D)
Model pick: Canelo Álvarez 89.19%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 89.19%
Market odds: 1.0714
Implied probability: 93.34%
Expected ROI (1u): -4.44%
Value edge: -4.15%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:20:49 UTC

Edgar Berlanga

Full name: Edgar Luis Berlanga Jr.
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #425
Current model score: 51.71
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.546
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 185cm / 185cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 23-2-0 (18 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

84.5 Berlanga Confidence High 0.760

Punching Accuracy

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

58.3 Berlanga Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

66.2 Berlanga Confidence Medium 0.520

Pace Pressure

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

49.7 Berlanga Confidence Medium 0.570

Defensive Skill

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

55.1 Berlanga Confidence Medium 0.550

Distance Footwork Control

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

52.0 Berlanga Confidence Low 0.490

Ring Iq Adaptability

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

47.2 Berlanga Confidence Medium 0.530

Counter Punching

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

50.4 Berlanga Confidence Low 0.450

Chin

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

49.7 Berlanga Confidence Medium 0.600

Cardio Engine

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

55.1 Berlanga Confidence Medium 0.620

Style Profile Álvarez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Berlanga: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

14.0 Berlanga Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

10.0 Berlanga Confidence Low 0.430

Power Slugger

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

42.0 Berlanga Confidence High 0.820

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

28.0 Berlanga Confidence Medium 0.640

Counter Puncher

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

6.0 Berlanga Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Advantage Álvarez Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Berlanga Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

72.0 Berlanga Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

28.0 Berlanga Confidence Low 0.360

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Álvarez

33.33 Berlanga

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Álvarez

33.33 Berlanga

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Álvarez

33.33 Berlanga

Opponent Rating Last 3

71.73 Álvarez

70.25 Berlanga

Trend Score Last 5

80 Álvarez

60 Berlanga

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.26 Álvarez

66.67 Berlanga

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30 Álvarez

55.3 Berlanga

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Álvarez

33.33 Berlanga

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

71.73 Álvarez

70.25 Berlanga

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Álvarez

80 Berlanga

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Álvarez moves down 1 classes.

Berlanga moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Álvarez reach: 179.0cm height: 171.0cm delta: 8.0cm

Berlanga reach: 185.0cm height: 185.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Álvarez.

Advantage: Álvarez

Stance Interaction

Álvarez advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Berlanga advantage against orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: low advantage Berlanga.

Advantage: Berlanga

Style Interaction

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Berlanga style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Álvarez.

Advantage: Álvarez