OWN YOUR EDGE
Álvarez vs Charlo 30 Sep 2023 Result: Barragán Historical Pick 57.53% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis
Change fighters and profiles

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Santos Barragán (U D)

Model pick Jermell Charlo 57.53%

Prediction result Incorrect

Álvarez odds 1.2222

Charlo odds 5.2500

Álvarez implied 81.82%

Charlo implied 19.05%

Pick odds 5.25

Pick implied 19.05%

Expected return 3.0204

ROI 202.04%

Edge 38.48%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:59:23 UTC

Fighter details
Canelo Álvarez
Canelo Álvarez

Score 78.46 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Full name Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán

Age 35 · Rank #11 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

JC
Jermell Charlo

Score 71.52 · 35-2-1 (19 KO)

Full name Jermell DeAvante Charlo

Age 36 · Rank #93 · Confidence Medium 0.671

Stance Orthodox · H/R 180cm / 185cm · US

The Ring Super welterweight

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

87.4 Charlo Confidence High 0.800

Punching Accuracy

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

74.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.680

Hand Speed

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

87.8 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.720

Pace Pressure

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

63.5 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.660

Defensive Skill

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

79.1 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.670

Distance Footwork Control

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

75.3 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.640

Ring Iq Adaptability

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

79.4 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.740

Counter Punching

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

89.9 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.740

Chin

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

85.1 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.630

Cardio Engine

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

67.9 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.660

Style Profile Álvarez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Charlo: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

10.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.500

Out Boxer

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

18.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.630

Power Slugger

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

20.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.680

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

39.0 Charlo Confidence High 0.790

Counter Puncher

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

13.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.520

Stance Advantage Álvarez Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Charlo Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

58.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.670

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

42.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.670

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Álvarez

33.33 Charlo

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Álvarez

33.33 Charlo

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Álvarez

0 Charlo

Opponent Rating Last 3

71.73 Álvarez

77.36 Charlo

Trend Score Last 5

80 Álvarez

70 Charlo

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.26 Álvarez

65.24 Charlo

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30 Álvarez

42.38 Charlo

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Álvarez

0 Charlo

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

71.73 Álvarez

77.36 Charlo

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Álvarez

75 Charlo

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Álvarez moves down 1 class.

Charlo moves up 1 class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Álvarez height: 171.0cm reach: 179.0cm

Charlo height: 180.0cm reach: 185.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Charlo.

Advantage: Charlo +15.0cm

Stance Interaction

Álvarez vs orthodox: 58.0

Charlo vs orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Charlo style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

Explore models · Login