Joseph Parker vs Martin Bakole

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2025-02-22

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Parker vs Bakole 22 Feb 2025 Result: Parker Historical Pick 56.27% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Joseph Parker (TKO)

Model pick Joseph Parker 56.27%

Prediction result Correct

Parker odds 1.6061

Bakole odds 2.6300

Parker implied 62.26%

Bakole implied 38.02%

Pick odds 1.6061

Pick implied 62.26%

Expected return 0.9037

ROI -9.63%

Edge -6.00%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:20:25 UTC

Fighter details

Joseph Parker

Score 79.07 · 36-4-0 (24 KO)

Full name Joseph Dennis Parker

Age 34 · Rank #18 · Confidence Medium 0.703

Stance Orthodox · H/R 193cm / 193cm · NZ

Martin Bakole

Score 58.07 · 21-2-1 (16 KO)

Full name Martin Bakole Ilunga

Age 32 · Rank #385 · Confidence Medium 0.557

Stance Orthodox · H/R 198cm / 208cm · CD

Joseph Parker

Full name: Joseph Dennis Parker
Age: 34
Fighter rank: #18
Current model score: 79.07
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.703
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 193cm / 193cm
Nationality: NZ
Career snapshot: 36-4-0 (24 KO)

22 Feb 2025

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Parker

Historical

56% Parker

44% Bakole

Fight result: Joseph Parker (TKO)
Model pick: Joseph Parker 56.27%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 56.27%
Market odds: 1.6061
Implied probability: 62.26%
Expected ROI (1u): -9.63%
Value edge: -6.00%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:20:25 UTC

Martin Bakole

Full name: Martin Bakole Ilunga
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #385
Current model score: 58.07
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.557
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 198cm / 208cm
Nationality: CD
Career snapshot: 21-2-1 (16 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

80.0 Parker Confidence High 0.800

84.5 Bakole Confidence High 0.790

Punching Accuracy

86.2 Parker Confidence Medium 0.720

69.7 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.620

Hand Speed

93.8 Parker Confidence High 0.780

60.9 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.520

Pace Pressure

73.3 Parker Confidence Medium 0.670

65.8 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.610

Defensive Skill

88.3 Parker Confidence High 0.760

55.4 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.560

Distance Footwork Control

87.8 Parker Confidence High 0.760

59.7 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.560

Ring Iq Adaptability

90.5 Parker Confidence High 0.790

59.4 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter Punching

89.9 Parker Confidence Medium 0.730

64.6 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.500

Chin

82.9 Parker Confidence Medium 0.680

52.0 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.570

Cardio Engine

86.1 Parker Confidence High 0.770

54.3 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.590

Style Profile Parker: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Bakole: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Parker Confidence Medium 0.530

18.0 Bakole Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

24.0 Parker Confidence Medium 0.680

10.0 Bakole Confidence Low 0.380

Power Slugger

16.0 Parker Confidence Medium 0.630

31.0 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.730

Boxer Puncher

34.0 Parker Confidence High 0.760

33.0 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter Puncher

14.0 Parker Confidence Medium 0.550

8.0 Bakole Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Advantage Parker Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Bakole Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Parker Confidence Medium 0.670

62.0 Bakole Confidence Medium 0.620

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Parker Confidence Medium 0.670

38.0 Bakole Confidence Low 0.440

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Parker

33.33 Bakole

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Parker

33.33 Bakole

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Parker

33.33 Bakole

Opponent Rating Last 3

75.48 Parker

75.95 Bakole

Trend Score Last 5

80 Parker

70 Bakole

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

79.28 Parker

64.29 Bakole

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

47.75 Parker

52.38 Bakole

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Parker

33.33 Bakole

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

75.48 Parker

75.95 Bakole

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Parker

85 Bakole

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Parker stays in class.

Bakole stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Parker height: 193.0cm reach: 193.0cm

Bakole height: 198.0cm reach: 208.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Bakole.

Advantage: Bakole +20.0cm

Stance Interaction

Parker vs orthodox: 58.0

Bakole vs orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral (Bakole +4.0 pts)

Style Interaction

Parker style: Boxer Puncher

Bakole style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral