Filip Hrgovir vs Zhilei Zhang

Data as of: 2026-05-13 14:32:09 UTC Historical As-of 2022-08-20

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Hrgovir vs Zhang 20 Aug 2022 Result: Hrgović Historical Pick 61.38% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Filip Hrgović (U D)

Model pick Filip Hrgovir 61.38%

Prediction result Correct

Hrgovir odds 1.1000

Zhang odds 7.5000

Hrgovir implied 90.91%

Zhang implied 13.33%

Pick odds 1.1

Pick implied 90.91%

Expected return 0.6752

ROI -32.48%

Edge -29.53%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:22:51 UTC

Fighter details

Filip Hrgovir

Score 66.13 · 19-1-0 (14 KO)

Full name Filip Hrgović

Age 33 · Rank #220 · Confidence Medium 0.629

Stance Orthodox · H/R 198cm / 208cm · HR

Zhilei Zhang

Score 59.81 · 27-3-1 (22 KO)

Full name Zhilei Zhang

Age 43 · Rank #352 · Confidence Medium 0.649

Stance Southpaw · H/R 198cm / 203cm · CN

Filip Hrgovir

Full name: Filip Hrgović
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #220
Current model score: 66.13
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.629
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 198cm / 208cm
Nationality: HR
Career snapshot: 19-1-0 (14 KO)

20 Aug 2022

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Hrgović

Historical

61% Hrgovir

39% Zhang

Fight result: Filip Hrgović (U D)
Model pick: Filip Hrgovir 61.38%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 61.38%
Market odds: 1.1
Implied probability: 90.91%
Expected ROI (1u): -32.48%
Value edge: -29.53%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:22:51 UTC

Zhilei Zhang

Full name: Zhilei Zhang
Age: 43
Fighter rank: #352
Current model score: 59.81
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.649
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 198cm / 203cm
Nationality: CN
Career snapshot: 27-3-1 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

85.0 Hrgovir Confidence High 0.810

89.9 Zhang Confidence High 0.860

Punching Accuracy

74.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.630

71.4 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.690

Hand Speed

71.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.560

69.6 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.630

Pace Pressure

70.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.660

42.5 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.670

Defensive Skill

65.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.610

56.0 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.660

Distance Footwork Control

73.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.670

55.7 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.640

Ring Iq Adaptability

72.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.640

62.5 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Punching

68.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.510

85.3 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.730

Chin

62.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.580

65.7 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.640

Cardio Engine

75.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.700

40.7 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.740

Style Profile Hrgovir: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Zhang: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.530

12.0 Zhang Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

21.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.670

16.0 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.580

Power Slugger

18.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.660

32.0 Zhang Confidence High 0.790

Boxer Puncher

38.0 Hrgovir Confidence High 0.760

28.0 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.710

Counter Puncher

11.0 Hrgovir Confidence Low 0.440

12.0 Zhang Confidence Low 0.470

Stance Advantage Hrgovir Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Zhang Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

57.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.630

72.0 Zhang Confidence Medium 0.710

Vs Southpaw

43.0 Hrgovir Confidence Medium 0.630

28.0 Zhang Confidence Low 0.380

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Hrgovir

33.33 Zhang

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Hrgovir

33.33 Zhang

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Hrgovir

0 Zhang

Opponent Rating Last 3

72.21 Hrgovir

80.16 Zhang

Trend Score Last 5

80 Hrgovir

60 Zhang

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Hrgovir

63.1 Zhang

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

41.18 Hrgovir

54.17 Zhang

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Hrgovir

0 Zhang

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

72.21 Hrgovir

80.16 Zhang

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Hrgovir

65 Zhang

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Hrgovir stays in class.

Zhang stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Hrgovir reach: 208.0cm height: 198.0cm delta: 10.0cm

Zhang reach: 203.0cm height: 198.0cm delta: 5.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Hrgovir.

Advantage: Hrgovir

Stance Interaction

Hrgovir advantage against orthodox: 57.0

Zhang advantage against orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: medium advantage Zhang.

Advantage: Zhang

Style Interaction

Hrgovir style: Boxer Puncher

Zhang style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Hrgovir.

Advantage: Hrgovir