Lawrence Okolie vs Michał Cieślak

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2022-02-27

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Okolie vs Cieślak 27 Feb 2022 Result: Okolie Historical Pick 70.28% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Lawrence Okolie (U D)

Model pick Lawrence Okolie 70.28%

Prediction result Correct

Okolie odds 1.1739

Cieślak odds 7.0000

Okolie implied 85.19%

Cieślak implied 14.29%

Pick odds 1.1739

Pick implied 85.19%

Expected return 0.8250

ROI -17.50%

Edge -14.90%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:23:16 UTC

Fighter details

Lawrence Okolie

Score 68.91 · 23-1-0 (17 KO)

Full name Lawrence Okolie

Age 33 · Rank #134 · Confidence Medium 0.595

Stance Orthodox · H/R 196cm / 210cm · GB

Michał Cieślak

Score 62.74 · 28-2-0 (22 KO)

Full name Michał Cieślak

Age 37 · Rank #227 · Confidence Medium 0.566

Stance Orthodox · H/R 191cm / 201cm · PL

Lawrence Okolie

Full name: Lawrence Okolie
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #134
Current model score: 68.91
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.595
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 196cm / 210cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 23-1-0 (17 KO)

27 Feb 2022

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Okolie

Historical

70% Okolie

30% Cieślak

Fight result: Lawrence Okolie (U D)
Model pick: Lawrence Okolie 70.28%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 70.28%
Market odds: 1.1739
Implied probability: 85.19%
Expected ROI (1u): -17.50%
Value edge: -14.90%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:23:16 UTC

Michał Cieślak

Full name: Michał Cieślak
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #227
Current model score: 62.74
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.566
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 191cm / 201cm
Nationality: PL
Career snapshot: 28-2-0 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

86.0 Okolie Confidence High 0.780

90.8 Cieślak Confidence High 0.820

Punching Accuracy

73.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.580

74.7 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

70.0 Okolie Confidence Low 0.450

68.7 Cieślak Confidence Low 0.460

Pace Pressure

67.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.520

81.1 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.630

Defensive Skill

72.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.580

64.4 Cieślak Confidence Low 0.450

Distance Footwork Control

83.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.720

67.8 Cieślak Confidence Low 0.490

Ring Iq Adaptability

78.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.660

63.6 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.510

Counter Punching

69.0 Okolie Confidence Low 0.440

67.6 Cieślak Confidence Low 0.400

Chin

76.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.550

75.4 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.500

Cardio Engine

77.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.650

64.7 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.560

Style Profile Okolie: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Cieślak: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

5.0 Okolie Confidence Low 0.450

18.0 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.580

Out Boxer

30.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.700

12.0 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.500

Power Slugger

25.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.720

34.0 Cieślak Confidence High 0.760

Boxer Puncher

35.0 Okolie Confidence High 0.760

28.0 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter Puncher

5.0 Okolie Confidence Low 0.350

8.0 Cieślak Confidence Low 0.380

Stance Advantage Okolie Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Cieślak Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

47.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.580

64.0 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.670

Vs Southpaw

53.0 Okolie Confidence Medium 0.620

36.0 Cieślak Confidence Medium 0.670

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Okolie

100 Cieślak

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Okolie

100 Cieślak

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Okolie

33.33 Cieślak

Opponent Rating Last 3

47.67 Okolie

44.67 Cieślak

Trend Score Last 5

85 Okolie

100 Cieślak

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Okolie

100 Cieślak

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

69.05 Okolie

100 Cieślak

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Okolie

33.33 Cieślak

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

49.94 Okolie

46.27 Cieślak

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

92.5 Okolie

100 Cieślak

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Okolie moves down 2 classes.

Cieślak stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Cieślak.

Advantage: Cieślak

Height Reach Delta

Okolie height: 196.0cm reach: 210.0cm

Cieślak height: 191.0cm reach: 201.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Okolie.

Advantage: Okolie +14.0cm

Stance Interaction

Okolie vs orthodox: 47.0

Cieślak vs orthodox: 64.0

Interaction: low advantage Cieślak.

Advantage: Cieślak (Cieślak +17.0 pts)

Style Interaction

Okolie style: Boxer Puncher

Cieślak style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Okolie.

Advantage: Okolie