Murat Gassiev vs Krzystof Wlodarczyk

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2017-10-21

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Gassiev vs Wlodarczyk 21 Oct 2017 Result: Gassiev Historical Pick 50.35% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Murat Gassiev (KO)

Model pick Krzystof Wlodarczyk 50.35%

Prediction result Incorrect

Gassiev odds 1.0625

Wlodarczyk odds 16.0000

Gassiev implied 94.12%

Wlodarczyk implied 6.25%

Pick odds 16

Pick implied 6.25%

Expected return 8.0560

ROI 705.60%

Edge 44.10%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:11:35 UTC

Fighter details

Murat Gassiev

Score 71.60 · 33-2-0 (26 KO)

Full name Murat Georgievich Gassiev

Age 32 · Rank #66 · Confidence Medium 0.660

Stance Orthodox · H/R 189cm / 193cm · RU

Krzystof Wlodarczyk

Score 65.01 · 66-4-1 (45 KO)

Full name Krzysztof Włodarczyk

Age 44 · Rank #200 · Confidence Medium 0.625

Stance Orthodox · H/R 186cm / 191cm · PL

Murat Gassiev

Full name: Murat Georgievich Gassiev
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #66
Current model score: 71.60
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.660
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 189cm / 193cm
Nationality: RU
Career snapshot: 33-2-0 (26 KO)

21 Oct 2017

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Gassiev

Historical

50% Gassiev

50% Wlodarczyk

Fight result: Murat Gassiev (KO)
Model pick: Krzystof Wlodarczyk 50.35%
Prediction result: Incorrect
Pick probability: 50.35%
Market odds: 16
Implied probability: 6.25%
Expected ROI (1u): 705.60%
Value edge: 44.10%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:11:35 UTC

Krzystof Wlodarczyk

Full name: Krzysztof Włodarczyk
Age: 44
Fighter rank: #200
Current model score: 65.01
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.625
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 186cm / 191cm
Nationality: PL
Career snapshot: 66-4-1 (45 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

93.5 Gassiev Confidence High 0.840

77.8 Wlodarczyk Confidence High 0.770

Punching Accuracy

82.9 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.650

70.8 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.620

Hand Speed

75.3 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.580

60.3 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

80.9 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.680

56.6 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.580

Defensive Skill

78.1 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.600

76.8 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.630

Distance Footwork Control

71.2 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.660

67.1 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.560

Ring Iq Adaptability

72.6 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.620

76.3 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.700

Counter Punching

81.5 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.570

82.3 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.640

Chin

90.8 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.630

76.2 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.660

Cardio Engine

70.9 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.640

66.9 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.680

Style Profile Gassiev: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher vs Wlodarczyk: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.630

14.0 Wlodarczyk Confidence Low 0.470

Out Boxer

6.0 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.740

12.0 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.520

Power Slugger

41.0 Gassiev Confidence High 0.880

22.0 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.710

Boxer Puncher

28.0 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.720

38.0 Wlodarczyk Confidence High 0.790

Counter Puncher

7.0 Gassiev Confidence Low 0.460

14.0 Wlodarczyk Confidence Low 0.430

Stance Advantage Gassiev Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Wlodarczyk Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.660

66.0 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Gassiev Confidence Medium 0.660

34.0 Wlodarczyk Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Gassiev

100 Wlodarczyk

Ko Rate Last 3

100 Gassiev

66.67 Wlodarczyk

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Gassiev

33.33 Wlodarczyk

Opponent Rating Last 3

49.33 Gassiev

48.33 Wlodarczyk

Trend Score Last 5

85 Gassiev

100 Wlodarczyk

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Gassiev

100 Wlodarczyk

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Gassiev

66.67 Wlodarczyk

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Gassiev

33.33 Wlodarczyk

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

49.53 Gassiev

48.85 Wlodarczyk

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

85 Gassiev

100 Wlodarczyk

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Gassiev moves down 2 classes.

Wlodarczyk stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Wlodarczyk.

Advantage: Wlodarczyk

Height Reach Delta

Gassiev height: 189.0cm reach: 193.0cm

Wlodarczyk height: 186.0cm reach: 191.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Gassiev.

Advantage: Gassiev +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Gassiev vs orthodox: 42.0

Wlodarczyk vs orthodox: 66.0

Interaction: medium advantage Wlodarczyk.

Advantage: Wlodarczyk (Wlodarczyk +24.0 pts)

Style Interaction

Gassiev style: Power Slugger

Wlodarczyk style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: medium advantage Wlodarczyk.

Advantage: Wlodarczyk