Kosuke Tomioka vs Shogo Tanaka

Data as of: 2026-05-17 07:41:50 UTC Time-safe As-of 2026-05-02

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Tomioka vs Tanaka 02 May 2026 Result: Draw Time-safe Pick 56.05% Prediction: Draw Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Draw

Model pick Kosuke Tomioka 56.05%

Prediction result Draw

Tomioka odds 3.7500

Tanaka odds 1.2500

Tomioka implied 26.67%

Tanaka implied 80.00%

Pick odds 3.75

Pick implied 26.67%

Expected return 2.1017

ROI 110.17%

Edge 29.38%

Lean Value

Bout Time-safe

Odds updated 2026-05-17 05:48:12 UTC

Fighter details

Kosuke Tomioka

Score 59.52 · 11-4-1 (8 KO)

Full name Kosuke Tomioka

Age 23 · Rank #296 · Confidence Medium 0.566

Stance Southpaw · H/R 162cm / 166cm · JP

Shogo Tanaka

Score 54.67 · 5-0-1 (3 KO)

Full name Shogo Tanaka

Age 24 · Rank #366 · Confidence Low 0.427

Stance N/A · H/R 161cm / 166cm · JP

Kosuke Tomioka

Full name: Kosuke Tomioka
Age: 23
Fighter rank: #296
Current model score: 59.52
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.566
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 162cm / 166cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 11-4-1 (8 KO)

02 May 2026

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Draw

Time-safe

56% Tomioka

44% Tanaka

Fight result: Draw
Model pick: Kosuke Tomioka 56.05%
Prediction result: Draw
Pick probability: 56.05%
Market odds: 3.75
Implied probability: 26.67%
Expected ROI (1u): 110.17%
Value edge: 29.38%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-05-17 05:48:12 UTC

Shogo Tanaka

Full name: Shogo Tanaka
Age: 24
Fighter rank: #366
Current model score: 54.67
Fighter confidence: Low 0.427
Stance: N/A
Height/Reach: 161cm / 166cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 5-0-1 (3 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

76.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.730

69.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.650

Punching Accuracy

67.0 Tomioka Confidence Low 0.480

63.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.440

Hand Speed

71.0 Tomioka Confidence Low 0.420

66.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.420

Pace Pressure

74.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.600

64.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.470

Defensive Skill

58.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.560

60.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.400

Distance Footwork Control

66.0 Tomioka Confidence Low 0.470

61.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.380

Ring Iq Adaptability

69.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.580

62.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.450

Counter Punching

63.0 Tomioka Confidence Low 0.380

57.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.310

Chin

52.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.620

64.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.430

Cardio Engine

73.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.640

67.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.560

Style Profile Tomioka: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Tanaka: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.530

18.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.280

Out Boxer

12.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.520

22.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.360

Power Slugger

29.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.670

14.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.310

Boxer Puncher

33.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.700

34.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.480

Counter Puncher

8.0 Tomioka Confidence Low 0.390

12.0 Tanaka Confidence Very Low 0.200

Stance Advantage Tomioka Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Tanaka Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

66.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.670

42.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.560

Vs Southpaw

34.0 Tomioka Confidence Medium 0.670

58.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.560

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Tomioka

66.67 Tanaka

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Tomioka

33.33 Tanaka

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Tomioka

100 Tanaka

Opponent Rating Last 3

66.35 Tomioka

57.41 Tanaka

Trend Score Last 5

90 Tomioka

90 Tanaka

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

72.22 Tomioka

83.33 Tanaka

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

50 Tomioka

50 Tanaka

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Tomioka

100 Tanaka

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

66.35 Tomioka

57.41 Tanaka

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Tomioka

95 Tanaka

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Tomioka stays in class.

Tanaka stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Tomioka reach: 166.0cm height: 162.0cm delta: 4.0cm

Tanaka reach: 166.0cm height: 161.0cm delta: 5.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Tanaka.

Advantage: Tanaka

Stance Interaction

Tomioka advantage against orthodox: 66.0

Tanaka advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Tomioka style: Boxer Puncher

Tanaka style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral