Terence Crawford vs Errol Spence

Data as of: 2026-05-13 14:32:09 UTC Historical As-of 2023-07-29

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Crawford vs Jr. 29 Jul 2023 Result: Crawford Historical Pick 67.15% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Terence Crawford (TKO)

Model pick Terence Crawford 67.15%

Prediction result Correct

Crawford odds 1.6667

Jr. odds 2.5000

Crawford implied 60.00%

Jr. implied 40.00%

Pick odds 1.6667

Pick implied 60.00%

Expected return 1.1192

ROI 11.92%

Edge 7.15%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:59:42 UTC

Fighter details

Terence Crawford

Score 82.76 · 42-0-0 (31 KO)

Full name Terence Allan Crawford

Age 38 · Rank #1 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Southpaw · H/R 173cm / 188cm · US

The Ring Super middleweight

Errol Spence Jr.

Score 77.81 · 28-1-0 (22 KO)

Full name Errol Spence Jr.

Age 36 · Rank #24 · Confidence Medium 0.699

Stance Southpaw · H/R 175cm / 183cm · US

Terence Crawford

Full name: Terence Allan Crawford
Age: 38
Fighter rank: #1
Current model score: 82.76
Fighter confidence: High 0.774
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 173cm / 188cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 42-0-0 (31 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super middleweight

29 Jul 2023

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Crawford

Historical

67% Crawford

33% Spence Jr.

Fight result: Terence Crawford (TKO)
Model pick: Terence Crawford 67.15%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 67.15%
Market odds: 1.6667
Implied probability: 60.00%
Expected ROI (1u): 11.92%
Value edge: 7.15%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:59:42 UTC

Errol Spence Jr.

Full name: Errol Spence Jr.
Age: 36
Fighter rank: #24
Current model score: 77.81
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.699
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 175cm / 183cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 28-1-0 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

86.5 Crawford Confidence High 0.840

84.5 Jr. Confidence High 0.820

Punching Accuracy

88.8 Crawford Confidence High 0.860

90.3 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.740

Hand Speed

88.4 Crawford Confidence High 0.790

87.5 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Pace Pressure

84.8 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.720

89.5 Jr. Confidence High 0.830

Defensive Skill

88.8 Crawford Confidence High 0.820

85.2 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.670

Distance Footwork Control

88.2 Crawford Confidence High 0.800

87.1 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.680

Ring Iq Adaptability

89.1 Crawford Confidence High 0.900

86.4 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.710

Counter Punching

89.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.880

82.1 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.580

Chin

87.6 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.650

79.1 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.550

Cardio Engine

87.6 Crawford Confidence High 0.770

87.9 Jr. Confidence High 0.800

Style Profile Crawford: Boxer-Puncher Counter-Puncher vs Jr.: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.530

34.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.740

Out Boxer

18.0 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.730

14.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Power Slugger

12.0 Crawford Confidence Medium 0.720

18.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.690

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.860

28.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.800

Counter Puncher

25.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.780

6.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.500

Stance Advantage Crawford Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Jr. Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

44.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.750

72.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.760

Vs Southpaw

56.0 Crawford Confidence High 0.750

28.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.760

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Crawford

66.67 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Crawford

33.33 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Crawford

0 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3

73.81 Crawford

72.94 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5

100 Crawford

80 Jr.

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Crawford

83.33 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

55.13 Crawford

57.05 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Crawford

0 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

73.81 Crawford

72.94 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Crawford

90 Jr.

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Crawford moves down 3 classes.

Jr. stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Jr..

Advantage: Jr.

Reach vs Height Delta

Crawford reach: 188.0cm height: 173.0cm delta: 15.0cm

Jr. reach: 183.0cm height: 175.0cm delta: 8.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Crawford.

Advantage: Crawford

Stance Interaction

Crawford advantage against southpaw: 56.0

Jr. advantage against orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: medium advantage Crawford.

Advantage: Crawford

Style Interaction

Crawford style: Boxer Puncher

Jr. style: Pressure Swarmer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral