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Alameda vs Gonzalez 18 Jul 2026 Model pick: Alameda Locked prediction 50.77% ROI: 306.12% Featherweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Aarón Alameda 50.77%

Alameda odds 8.0000

Gonzalez odds 1.0710

Alameda implied 12.50%

Gonzalez implied 93.37%

Market odds 8

Implied probability 12.50%

Expected return 4.0612

ROI 306.12%

Edge 38.27%

Lean Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-15 00:50:21 UTC

Fighter details
AA
Aarón Alameda

Score 59.74 · 30-3-0 (17 KO)

Full name Aarón Alameda López

Age 32 · Rank #388 · Confidence Medium 0.534

Stance Southpaw · H/R 168cm / 170cm · MX

AG
Albert Gonzalez

Score 66.97 · 17-0-0 (10 KO)

Full name Albert Gonzalez

Age 24 · Rank #164 · Confidence Medium 0.525

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / 163cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

72.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.720

79.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.740

Punching Accuracy

67.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.520

73.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.560

Hand Speed

66.0 Alameda Confidence Low 0.440

72.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

69.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.560

76.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.630

Defensive Skill

64.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.550

71.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.490

Distance Footwork Control

63.0 Alameda Confidence Low 0.460

69.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.450

Ring IQ Adaptability

68.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.570

74.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.570

Counter Punching

62.0 Alameda Confidence Low 0.400

67.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.420

Chin

76.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.740

70.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.380

Cardio Engine

74.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.700

78.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.680

Style Profile Alameda: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Gonzalez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

13.0 Alameda Confidence Low 0.350

18.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.440

Out-Boxer

24.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.520

16.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.460

Power Slugger

15.0 Alameda Confidence Low 0.460

20.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.520

Boxer-Puncher

36.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.660

36.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.630

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Alameda Confidence Low 0.270

10.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.290

Stance Interaction Alameda vs orthodox  ·  Gonzalez vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.580

62.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.580

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Alameda Confidence Medium 0.580

38.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.580

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Alameda

100 Gonzalez

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Alameda

100 Gonzalez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Alameda

100 Gonzalez

Opponent Rating Last 3

58.54 Alameda

67.37 Gonzalez

Trend Score Last 5

80 Alameda

100 Gonzalez

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80 Alameda

100 Gonzalez

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

43.33 Alameda

100 Gonzalez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Alameda

100 Gonzalez

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

58.54 Alameda

67.37 Gonzalez

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Alameda

100 Gonzalez

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Alameda moves up 1 class.

Gonzalez stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Gonzalez.

Advantage: Gonzalez

Height Reach Delta

Alameda height: 168.0cm reach: 170.0cm

Gonzalez height: 170.0cm reach: 162.6cm

Interaction: medium advantage Alameda.

Advantage: Alameda +5.4cm

Stance Interaction

Alameda vs orthodox: 62.0

Gonzalez vs southpaw: 38.0

Interaction: medium advantage Alameda.

Advantage: Alameda

Style Interaction

Alameda style: Boxer Puncher

Gonzalez style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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