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Adames vs Warburton 14 Nov 2026 Model pick: Adames Locked prediction 72.78% ROI: -24.80% Super middleweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Carlos Adames 72.78%

Adames odds 1.0333

Warburton odds 9.9000

Adames implied 96.78%

Warburton implied 10.10%

Market odds 1.0333

Implied probability 96.78%

Expected return 0.7520

ROI -24.80%

Edge -24.00%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-11-03 11:21:25 UTC

Fighter details
Carlos Adames
Carlos Adames

Score 69.03 · 25-1-1 (18 KO)

Full name Carlos Adames

Age 32 · Rank #138 · Confidence Medium 0.601

Stance Orthodox · H/R 180cm / 185cm · FR

WBC Middleweight
GW
Gerome Warburton

Score 53.04 · 17-2-2 (2 KO)

Full name Gerome Warburton

Age 31 · Rank #784 · Confidence Medium 0.534

Stance Southpaw · H/R 175cm / 182cm · GB

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.0 Adames Confidence High 0.780

40.0 Warburton Confidence High 0.850

Punching Accuracy

76.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.620

63.0 Warburton Confidence Low 0.480

Hand Speed

75.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.560

58.0 Warburton Confidence Low 0.340

Pace Pressure

78.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.680

61.0 Warburton Confidence Low 0.460

Defensive Skill

72.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.600

57.0 Warburton Confidence Low 0.470

Distance Footwork Control

74.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.570

66.0 Warburton Confidence Medium 0.520

Ring IQ Adaptability

79.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.690

68.0 Warburton Confidence Medium 0.560

Counter Punching

71.0 Adames Confidence Low 0.490

60.0 Warburton Confidence Low 0.360

Chin

77.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.630

52.0 Warburton Confidence Medium 0.500

Cardio Engine

81.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.740

69.0 Warburton Confidence Medium 0.620

Style Profile Adames: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Warburton: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Adames Confidence Low 0.430

14.0 Warburton Confidence Low 0.430

Out-Boxer

16.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.520

40.0 Warburton Confidence Medium 0.720

Power Slugger

24.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.630

4.0 Warburton Confidence High 0.900

Boxer-Puncher

34.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.720

24.0 Warburton Confidence Low 0.460

Counter-Puncher

8.0 Adames Confidence Low 0.270

18.0 Warburton Confidence Low 0.410

Stance Interaction Adames vs southpaw  ·  Warburton vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.640

72.0 Warburton Confidence Medium 0.670

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Adames Confidence Medium 0.640

28.0 Warburton Confidence Low 0.330

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Adames

100 Warburton

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Adames

0 Warburton

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Adames

66.67 Warburton

Opponent Rating Last 3

74.16 Adames

60.6 Warburton

Trend Score Last 5

90 Adames

85 Warburton

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

81.25 Adames

100 Warburton

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

37.5 Adames

0 Warburton

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Adames

66.67 Warburton

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

74.16 Adames

60.6 Warburton

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Adames

87.5 Warburton

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Adames moves up 1 class.

Warburton moves up 1 class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Adames height: 180.0cm reach: 185.0cm

Warburton height: 175.0cm reach: 182.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Adames.

Advantage: Adames +8.0cm

Stance Interaction

Adames vs southpaw: 42.0

Warburton vs orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: medium advantage Warburton.

Advantage: Warburton

Style Interaction

Adames style: Boxer Puncher

Warburton style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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