Liam Smith vs Aaron McKenna

Data as of: 2026-06-13 01:18:23 UTC Historical result As-of 2025-04-26

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Smith vs McKenna 26 Apr 2025 Result: McKenna Historical result Pick 80.15% Prediction: Correct Middleweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Aaron McKenna (U D)

Historical lean Aaron McKenna 80.15%

Prediction result Correct

Smith odds 2.5000

McKenna odds 1.6135

Smith implied 40.00%

McKenna implied 61.98%

Closing odds 1.6135

Closing implied 61.98%

Expected return 1.2932

ROI 29.32%

Edge 18.17%

Lean Value

Bout Historical result

Closing odds captured 2026-03-23 16:20:11 UTC

Fighter details

Liam Smith

Score 63.09 · 33-5-1 (20 KO)

Full name Liam Mark Smith

Age 37 · Rank #281 · Confidence Medium 0.675

Stance Orthodox · H/R 177cm / 175cm · GB

Aaron McKenna

Score 71.15 · 20-0-0 (10 KO)

Full name Aaron McKenna

Age 26 · Rank #76 · Confidence Medium 0.538

Stance Orthodox · H/R 185cm / 191cm · IE

Liam Smith

Full name: Liam Mark Smith
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #281
Current model score: 63.09
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.675
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 177cm / 175cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 33-5-1 (20 KO)

26 Apr 2025

Confirmed Result

Result

McKenna

Historical result

0% Smith

100% McKenna

Fight result: Aaron McKenna (U D)
Historical lean: Aaron McKenna 80.15%
Prediction result: Correct
Historical win probability: 80.15%
Closing odds: 1.6135
Closing implied: 61.98%
Expected ROI (1u): 29.32%
Value edge: 18.17%
Lean assessment: Value

Closing odds captured 2026-03-23 16:20:11 UTC

Aaron McKenna

Full name: Aaron McKenna
Age: 26
Fighter rank: #76
Current model score: 71.15
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.538
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 185cm / 191cm
Nationality: IE
Career snapshot: 20-0-0 (10 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

68.4 Smith Confidence High 0.790

69.6 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.620

Punching Accuracy

69.8 Smith Confidence Medium 0.700

79.0 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.560

Hand Speed

62.3 Smith Confidence Medium 0.610

76.2 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

81.8 Smith Confidence High 0.800

73.4 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.550

Defensive Skill

68.3 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

86.6 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.580

Distance Footwork Control

62.8 Smith Confidence Medium 0.620

88.0 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.660

Ring Iq Adaptability

71.6 Smith Confidence Medium 0.740

86.5 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Punching

76.5 Smith Confidence Medium 0.660

78.5 McKenna Confidence Low 0.470

Chin

62.2 Smith Confidence Medium 0.730

80.1 McKenna Confidence Low 0.460

Cardio Engine

64.4 Smith Confidence Medium 0.710

87.9 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.700

Style Profile Smith: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer vs McKenna: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

26.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

12.0 McKenna Confidence Low 0.350

Out Boxer

8.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.550

26.0 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.550

Power Slugger

18.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.660

14.0 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.500

Boxer Puncher

34.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.730

40.0 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.660

Counter Puncher

14.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.520

8.0 McKenna Confidence Very Low 0.240

Stance Interaction Smith vs orthodox · McKenna vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.670

58.0 McKenna Confidence Medium 0.620

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.670

42.0 McKenna Confidence Low 0.440

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Smith

100 McKenna

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Smith

66.67 McKenna

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Smith

33.33 McKenna

Opponent Rating Last 3

76.8 Smith

55.84 McKenna

Trend Score Last 5

60 Smith

100 McKenna

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

61.11 Smith

100 McKenna

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

43.06 Smith

66.67 McKenna

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Smith

33.33 McKenna

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

76.8 Smith

55.84 McKenna

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

70 Smith

100 McKenna

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Smith stays in class.

McKenna stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Smith height: 177.0cm reach: 175.0cm

McKenna height: 185.0cm reach: 191.0cm

Interaction: high advantage McKenna.

Advantage: McKenna +24.0cm

Stance Interaction

Smith vs orthodox: 62.0

McKenna vs orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Smith style: Boxer Puncher

McKenna style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral