Jermell Charlo vs Brian Castaño

Data as of: 2026-06-02 04:00:03 UTC Historical As-of 2022-05-14

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Charlo vs Castaño 14 May 2022 Result: Charlo Historical Pick 77.97% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Jermell Charlo (KO)

Model pick Jermell Charlo 77.97%

Prediction result Correct

Charlo odds 1.4762

Castaño odds 2.8500

Charlo implied 67.74%

Castaño implied 35.09%

Pick odds 1.4762

Pick implied 67.74%

Expected return 1.1511

ROI 15.11%

Edge 10.23%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:02:17 UTC

Fighter details

Jermell Charlo

Score 71.79 · 35-2-1 (19 KO)

Full name Jermell DeAvante Charlo

Age 36 · Rank #93 · Confidence Medium 0.671

Stance Orthodox · H/R 180cm / 185cm · US

The Ring Super welterweight

Brian Castaño

Score 69.92 · 17-1-2 (12 KO)

Full name Brian Carlos Castaño

Age 36 · Rank #130 · Confidence Medium 0.659

Stance Orthodox · H/R 169cm / 173cm · AR

Jermell Charlo

Full name: Jermell DeAvante Charlo
Age: 36
Fighter rank: #93
Current model score: 71.79
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.671
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 180cm / 185cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 35-2-1 (19 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super welterweight

14 May 2022

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Charlo

Historical

78% Charlo

22% Castaño

Fight result: Jermell Charlo (KO)
Model pick: Jermell Charlo 77.97%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 77.97%
Market odds: 1.4762
Implied probability: 67.74%
Expected ROI (1u): 15.11%
Value edge: 10.23%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:02:17 UTC

Brian Castaño

Full name: Brian Carlos Castaño
Age: 36
Fighter rank: #130
Current model score: 69.92
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.659
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 169cm / 173cm
Nationality: AR
Career snapshot: 17-1-2 (12 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

87.4 Charlo Confidence High 0.800

66.8 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.730

Punching Accuracy

74.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.680

78.6 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.680

Hand Speed

87.8 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.720

77.9 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.640

Pace Pressure

63.5 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.660

89.5 Castaño Confidence High 0.820

Defensive Skill

79.1 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.670

75.9 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.660

Distance Footwork Control

75.3 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.640

70.6 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.610

Ring Iq Adaptability

79.4 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.740

78.6 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.720

Counter Punching

89.9 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.740

71.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.560

Chin

85.1 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.630

78.6 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.650

Cardio Engine

67.9 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.660

87.9 Castaño Confidence High 0.800

Style Profile Charlo: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Castaño: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

10.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.500

41.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.670

Out Boxer

18.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.630

7.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.560

Power Slugger

20.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.680

18.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.620

Boxer Puncher

39.0 Charlo Confidence High 0.790

25.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.640

Counter Puncher

13.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.520

9.0 Castaño Confidence Low 0.480

Stance Advantage Charlo Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Castaño Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.670

42.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.670

58.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Charlo

33.33 Castaño

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Charlo

0 Castaño

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Charlo

0 Castaño

Opponent Rating Last 3

77.36 Charlo

78.4 Castaño

Trend Score Last 5

70 Charlo

60 Castaño

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

65.24 Charlo

63.73 Castaño

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

42.38 Charlo

35.29 Castaño

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Charlo

0 Castaño

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

77.36 Charlo

78.4 Castaño

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

75 Charlo

80 Castaño

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Charlo stays in class.

Castaño stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Charlo height: 180.0cm reach: 185.0cm

Castaño height: 169.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Charlo.

Advantage: Charlo +23.0cm

Stance Interaction

Charlo vs orthodox: 58.0

Castaño vs orthodox: 42.0

Interaction: low advantage Charlo.

Advantage: Charlo

Style Interaction

Charlo style: Boxer Puncher

Castaño style: Pressure Swarmer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral