Jermell Charlo vs Erickson Lubin

Data as of: 2026-06-02 04:00:03 UTC Historical As-of 2017-10-14

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Charlo vs Lubin 14 Oct 2017 Result: Charlo Historical Pick 50.39% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Jermell Charlo (KO)

Model pick Erickson Lubin 50.39%

Prediction result Incorrect

Charlo odds 1.8696

Lubin odds 2.1900

Charlo implied 53.49%

Lubin implied 45.66%

Pick odds 2.19

Pick implied 45.66%

Expected return 1.1035

ROI 10.35%

Edge 4.73%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:11:37 UTC

Fighter details

Jermell Charlo

Score 72.63 · 35-2-1 (19 KO)

Full name Jermell DeAvante Charlo

Age 36 · Rank #93 · Confidence Medium 0.671

Stance Orthodox · H/R 180cm / 185cm · US

The Ring Super welterweight

Erickson Lubin

Score 68.09 · 27-3-0 (19 KO)

Full name Erickson Lubin

Age 30 · Rank #146 · Confidence Medium 0.654

Stance Southpaw · H/R 177cm / 189cm · US

Jermell Charlo

Full name: Jermell DeAvante Charlo
Age: 36
Fighter rank: #93
Current model score: 72.63
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.671
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 180cm / 185cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 35-2-1 (19 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super welterweight

14 Oct 2017

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Charlo

Historical

50% Charlo

50% Lubin

Fight result: Jermell Charlo (KO)
Model pick: Erickson Lubin 50.39%
Prediction result: Incorrect
Pick probability: 50.39%
Market odds: 2.19
Implied probability: 45.66%
Expected ROI (1u): 10.35%
Value edge: 4.73%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:11:37 UTC

Erickson Lubin

Full name: Erickson Lubin
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #146
Current model score: 68.09
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.654
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 177cm / 189cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 27-3-0 (19 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

87.4 Charlo Confidence High 0.800

79.8 Lubin Confidence High 0.780

Punching Accuracy

74.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.680

75.5 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.660

Hand Speed

87.8 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.720

84.8 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.680

Pace Pressure

63.5 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.660

66.0 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.620

Defensive Skill

79.1 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.670

74.5 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.700

Distance Footwork Control

75.3 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.640

80.1 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.670

Ring Iq Adaptability

79.4 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.740

72.2 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.690

Counter Punching

89.9 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.740

84.7 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.650

Chin

85.1 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.630

56.4 Lubin Confidence High 0.760

Cardio Engine

67.9 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.660

66.0 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.680

Style Profile Charlo: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Lubin: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

10.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.500

12.0 Lubin Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

18.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.630

18.0 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.630

Power Slugger

20.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.680

22.0 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.660

Boxer Puncher

39.0 Charlo Confidence High 0.790

38.0 Lubin Confidence High 0.770

Counter Puncher

13.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.520

10.0 Lubin Confidence Low 0.360

Stance Advantage Charlo Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Lubin Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.670

62.0 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Charlo Confidence Medium 0.670

38.0 Lubin Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Charlo

66.67 Lubin

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Charlo

33.33 Lubin

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Charlo

66.67 Lubin

Opponent Rating Last 3

77.36 Charlo

67.97 Lubin

Trend Score Last 5

70 Charlo

60 Lubin

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

65.24 Charlo

79.63 Lubin

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

42.38 Charlo

50 Lubin

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Charlo

66.67 Lubin

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

77.36 Charlo

67.97 Lubin

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

75 Charlo

80 Lubin

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Charlo stays in class.

Lubin stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Charlo height: 180.0cm reach: 185.0cm

Lubin height: 177.0cm reach: 189.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Lubin.

Advantage: Lubin +1.0cm

Stance Interaction

Charlo vs southpaw: 42.0

Lubin vs orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: medium advantage Lubin.

Advantage: Lubin

Style Interaction

Charlo style: Boxer Puncher

Lubin style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral