Joshua Kelly vs Caoimhín Hynes

Data as of: 2026-07-25 03:09:56 UTC Locked prediction As of 2026-07-25 01:01:27 UTC

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Kelly vs Hynes TODAY Model pick: Kelly Locked prediction 81.81% ROI: 0.41% Super welterweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Joshua Kelly 81.81%

Kelly odds 1.2273

Hynes odds 4.4000

Kelly implied 81.48%

Hynes implied 22.73%

Market odds 1.2273

Implied probability 81.48%

Expected return 1.0041

ROI 0.41%

Edge 0.33%

Lean Value

Bout Locked prediction

Titles on line

IBF

Super welterweight Championship

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-25 01:01:27 UTC

Fighter details

Joshua Kelly

Score 81.14 · 18-1-1 (9 KO)

Full name Joshua Kelly

Age 32 · Rank #133 · Confidence Medium 0.633

Stance Orthodox · H/R 178cm / 183cm · GB

IBF Super welterweight

Caoimhín Hynes

Score 56.08 · 18-0-0 (7 KO)

Full name Caoimhín Agyarko Hynes

Age 29 · Rank #424 · Confidence Medium 0.544

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 180cm · IE

Joshua Kelly

Full name: Joshua Kelly
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #133
Current model score: 81.14
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.633
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 178cm / 183cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 18-1-1 (9 KO)

World titles

IBF Super welterweight

TODAY

Projected Win Split

Model pick

Kelly

Locked prediction

82% Kelly

18% Hynes

Titles on line

IBF

Super welterweight Championship

Model pick: Joshua Kelly 81.81%
Win probability: 81.81%
Market odds: 1.2273
Implied probability: 81.48%
Expected ROI (1u): 0.41%
Value edge: 0.33%
Lean assessment: Value

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-25 01:01:27 UTC

Caoimhín Hynes

Full name: Caoimhín Agyarko Hynes
Age: 29
Fighter rank: #424
Current model score: 56.08
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.544
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 175cm / 180cm
Nationality: IE
Career snapshot: 18-0-0 (7 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

74.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.690

68.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.630

Punching Accuracy

79.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.720

72.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.570

Hand Speed

86.0 Kelly Confidence High 0.780

69.0 Hynes Confidence Low 0.450

Pace Pressure

63.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.630

66.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.500

Defensive Skill

72.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.670

74.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.600

Distance Footwork Control

82.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.740

73.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.560

Ring IQ Adaptability

77.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.680

75.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.620

Counter Punching

81.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.720

67.0 Hynes Confidence Low 0.440

Chin

61.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.580

76.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.510

Cardio Engine

78.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.710

78.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.680

Style Profile Kelly: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Hynes: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Kelly Confidence Low 0.430

16.0 Hynes Confidence Low 0.420

Out-Boxer

31.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.660

23.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.550

Power Slugger

11.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.520

10.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.520

Boxer-Puncher

37.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.720

39.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter-Puncher

13.0 Kelly Confidence Low 0.490

12.0 Hynes Confidence Low 0.350

Stance Interaction Kelly vs orthodox · Hynes vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

68.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.640

63.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.580

Vs Southpaw

32.0 Kelly Confidence Low 0.380

37.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.580

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Kelly

100 Hynes

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Kelly

0 Hynes

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Kelly

33.33 Hynes

Opponent Rating Last 3

70.4 Kelly

57.75 Hynes

Trend Score Last 5

100 Kelly

100 Hynes

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Kelly

100 Hynes

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

40.2 Kelly

20 Hynes

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Kelly

33.33 Hynes

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

70.4 Kelly

57.75 Hynes

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Kelly

100 Hynes

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Kelly stays in class.

Hynes stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Kelly height: 178.0cm reach: 183.0cm

Hynes height: 175.0cm reach: 180.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Kelly.

Advantage: Kelly +6.0cm

Stance Interaction

Kelly vs orthodox: 68.0

Hynes vs orthodox: 63.0

Interaction: low advantage Kelly.

Advantage: Kelly

Style Interaction

Kelly style: Boxer Puncher

Hynes style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral