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Barrios vs Garcia 21 Feb 2026 Result: Garcia Historical Pick 74.74% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Ryan Garcia (U D)

Model pick Mario Barrios 74.74%

Prediction result Incorrect

Barrios odds 3.1000

Garcia odds 1.4444

Barrios implied 32.26%

Garcia implied 69.23%

Pick odds 3.1

Pick implied 32.26%

Expected return 2.3169

ROI 131.69%

Edge 42.48%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:53:05 UTC

Fighter details
MB
Mario Barrios

Score 63.32 · 29-3-2 (18 KO)

Full name Mario Thomas Barrios

Age 31 · Rank #4 · Confidence Medium 0.616

Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 188cm · US

Ryan Garcia
Ryan Garcia

Score 67.64 · 25-2-0 (20 KO)

Full name Ryan Garcia

Age 27 · Rank #126 · Confidence Medium 0.661

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 178cm · US

WBC Welterweight

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

66.7 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.720

84.5 Garcia Confidence High 0.850

Punching Accuracy

63.9 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.580

82.4 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.670

Hand Speed

70.8 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.560

92.1 Garcia Confidence High 0.840

Pace Pressure

69.1 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.630

66.3 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.600

Defensive Skill

69.7 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.620

70.0 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.680

Distance Footwork Control

78.0 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.680

77.0 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.620

Ring Iq Adaptability

74.6 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.690

64.3 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter Punching

70.5 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.520

92.1 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.720

Chin

73.6 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.700

63.4 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.720

Cardio Engine

77.5 Barrios Confidence High 0.760

68.0 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.630

Style Profile Barrios: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Garcia: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Barrios Confidence Low 0.470

8.0 Garcia Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

24.0 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.630

18.0 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.580

Power Slugger

18.0 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.580

34.0 Garcia Confidence High 0.780

Boxer Puncher

36.0 Barrios Confidence High 0.750

28.0 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.720

Counter Puncher

8.0 Barrios Confidence Low 0.340

12.0 Garcia Confidence Low 0.430

Stance Advantage Barrios Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Garcia Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.620

38.0 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Barrios Confidence Medium 0.620

62.0 Garcia Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

0 Barrios

66.67 Garcia

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Barrios

33.33 Garcia

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Barrios

66.67 Garcia

Opponent Rating Last 3

77.05 Barrios

69.22 Garcia

Trend Score Last 5

60 Barrios

60 Garcia

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

46.77 Barrios

81.25 Garcia

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

29.03 Barrios

56.25 Garcia

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Barrios

66.67 Garcia

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

77.05 Barrios

69.22 Garcia

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

60 Barrios

80 Garcia

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Barrios stays in class.

Garcia stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Barrios height: 183.0cm reach: 188.0cm

Garcia height: 175.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Barrios.

Advantage: Barrios +18.0cm

Stance Interaction

Barrios vs orthodox: 62.0

Garcia vs orthodox: 38.0

Interaction: medium advantage Barrios.

Advantage: Barrios

Style Interaction

Barrios style: Boxer Puncher

Garcia style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Barrios.

Advantage: Barrios

Model: FiteQuant

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