Fight result Keith Thurman (U D)
Model pick Mario Barrios 73.66%
Prediction result Incorrect
Barrios odds 2.9000
Thurman odds 1.5714
Barrios implied 34.48%
Thurman implied 63.64%
Pick odds 2.9
Pick implied 34.48%
Expected return 2.1362
ROI 113.62%
Edge 39.18%
Lean Value
Bout Historical
Odds updated 2026-04-23 19:15:24 UTC
Score 64.42 · 29-3-2 (18 KO)
Full name Mario Thomas Barrios
Age 31 · Rank #4 · Confidence Medium 0.616
Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 188cm · US
Score 64.89 · 31-2-0 (23 KO)
Full name Keith Fitzgerald Thurman Jr.
Age 37 · Rank #217 · Confidence Medium 0.666
Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 175cm · US
Punching Power
Punching Accuracy
Hand Speed
Pace Pressure
Defensive Skill
Distance Footwork Control
Ring Iq Adaptability
Counter Punching
Chin
Cardio Engine
Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.
Pressure Swarmer
Out Boxer
Power Slugger
Boxer Puncher
Counter Puncher
Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.
Vs Orthodox
Vs Southpaw
Win Rate Last 3
Ko Rate Last 3
Activity Last 3 In Last 12m
Opponent Rating Last 3
Trend Score Last 5
Win Rate Last 3 Relative
Ko Rate Last 3 Relative
Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative
Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative
Trend Score Last 5 Relative
Weight Class Difference
Barrios stays in class.
Thurman moves down 1 class.
Interaction: low advantage Barrios.
Advantage: Barrios
Height Reach Delta
Barrios height: 183.0cm reach: 188.0cm
Thurman height: 171.0cm reach: 175.0cm
Interaction: high advantage Barrios.
Advantage: Barrios +25.0cm
Stance Interaction
Barrios vs orthodox: 62.0
Thurman vs orthodox: 61.0
Interaction: No advantage.
Advantage: Neutral
Style Interaction
Barrios style: Boxer Puncher
Thurman style: Boxer Puncher
Interaction: No advantage.
Advantage: Neutral
