OWN YOUR EDGE
Rocha vs Curiel 14 Dec 2024 Model lean: Curiel Custom 59.21% ROI: 2.11% Tap to expand Analysis
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Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model lean Raul Curiel 59.21%

Rocha odds 2.2500

Curiel odds 1.7246

Rocha implied 44.44%

Curiel implied 57.98%

Pick odds 1.7246

Pick implied 57.98%

Expected return 1.0211

ROI 2.11%

Edge 1.22%

Lean Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:56:26 UTC

Fighter details
AR
Alexis Rocha

Score 62.54 · 19-2-1 (16 KO)

Full name Alexis Rocha

Age 28 · Rank #264 · Confidence Medium 0.628

Stance Southpaw · H/R 175cm / 178cm · US

RC
Raul Curiel

Score 67.15 · 17-0-1 (14 KO)

Full name Raúl Curiel García

Age 30 · Rank #147 · Confidence Medium 0.546

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 178cm · MX

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

68.9 Rocha Confidence High 0.750

75.2 Curiel Confidence High 0.760

Punching Accuracy

72.8 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.620

80.9 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.590

Hand Speed

70.1 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.550

75.6 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.520

Pace Pressure

81.5 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.720

72.8 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.570

Defensive Skill

68.0 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.740

74.4 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.500

Distance Footwork Control

69.2 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.620

75.6 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.530

Ring Iq Adaptability

66.7 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.650

77.7 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.600

Counter Punching

70.3 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.540

75.0 Curiel Confidence Low 0.460

Chin

60.7 Rocha Confidence High 0.800

76.6 Curiel Confidence Low 0.470

Cardio Engine

74.1 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.700

79.4 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.640

Style Profile Rocha: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer  vs  Curiel: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

21.0 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.580

18.0 Curiel Confidence Low 0.430

Out Boxer

10.0 Rocha Confidence Low 0.430

10.0 Curiel Confidence Low 0.390

Power Slugger

18.0 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.630

31.0 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.650

Boxer Puncher

39.0 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.720

34.0 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter Puncher

12.0 Rocha Confidence Low 0.380

7.0 Curiel Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Advantage Rocha Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Curiel Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.620

42.0 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.610

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Rocha Confidence Medium 0.620

58.0 Curiel Confidence Medium 0.610

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Rocha

66.67 Curiel

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Rocha

33.33 Curiel

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Rocha

66.67 Curiel

Opponent Rating Last 3

60.39 Rocha

56.72 Curiel

Trend Score Last 5

73.75 Rocha

90 Curiel

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

78.07 Rocha

83.33 Curiel

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

18.42 Rocha

60 Curiel

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Rocha

66.67 Curiel

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

60.39 Rocha

56.72 Curiel

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

86.88 Rocha

95 Curiel

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Rocha stays in class.

Curiel stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Rocha reach: 178.0cm height: 175.0cm delta: 3.0cm

Curiel reach: 178.0cm height: 173.0cm delta: 5.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Curiel.

Advantage: Curiel

Stance Interaction

Rocha advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Curiel advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Rocha style: Boxer Puncher

Curiel style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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