Egidijus Kavaliauskas vs Vergil Ortiz

Data as of: 2026-06-02 04:00:03 UTC Historical As-of 2021-08-14

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Kavaliauskas vs Jr. 14 Aug 2021 Result: Ortiz Historical Pick 81.10% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Vergil Ortiz (TKO)

Model pick Vergil Ortiz 81.10%

Prediction result Correct

Kavaliauskas odds 14.0000

Jr. odds 1.1111

Kavaliauskas implied 7.14%

Jr. implied 90.00%

Pick odds 1.1111

Pick implied 90.00%

Expected return 0.9010

ROI -9.90%

Edge -8.91%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:03:51 UTC

Fighter details

Egidijus Kavaliauskas

Score 53.83 · 25-3-1 (19 KO)

Full name Egidijus Kavaliauskas

Age 37 · Rank #456 · Confidence Medium 0.600

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 180cm · LT

Vergil Ortiz Jr.

Score 75.30 · 24-0-0 (22 KO)

Full name Vergil Ortiz Jr.

Age 28 · Rank #35 · Confidence Medium 0.610

Stance Orthodox · H/R 178cm / 178cm · US

Egidijus Kavaliauskas

Full name: Egidijus Kavaliauskas
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #456
Current model score: 53.83
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.600
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 175cm / 180cm
Nationality: LT
Career snapshot: 25-3-1 (19 KO)

14 Aug 2021

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Ortiz

Historical

19% Kavaliauskas

81% Ortiz Jr.

Fight result: Vergil Ortiz (TKO)
Model pick: Vergil Ortiz 81.10%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 81.10%
Market odds: 1.1111
Implied probability: 90.00%
Expected ROI (1u): -9.90%
Value edge: -8.91%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:03:51 UTC

Vergil Ortiz Jr.

Full name: Vergil Ortiz Jr.
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #35
Current model score: 75.30
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.610
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 178cm / 178cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 24-0-0 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

81.0 Kavaliauskas Confidence High 0.830

84.5 Jr. Confidence High 0.880

Punching Accuracy

58.0 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.550

90.3 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Hand Speed

57.7 Kavaliauskas Confidence Low 0.480

90.3 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.570

Pace Pressure

66.2 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.640

89.5 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.740

Defensive Skill

52.8 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.670

80.7 Jr. Confidence Low 0.440

Distance Footwork Control

50.9 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.560

79.8 Jr. Confidence Low 0.450

Ring Iq Adaptability

52.5 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.580

84.3 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter Punching

57.1 Kavaliauskas Confidence Low 0.470

84.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.420

Chin

64.6 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.630

87.8 Jr. Confidence Low 0.490

Cardio Engine

49.4 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.610

84.6 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.610

Style Profile Kavaliauskas: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher vs Jr.: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.550

30.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.740

Out Boxer

10.0 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.500

6.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.480

Power Slugger

34.0 Kavaliauskas Confidence High 0.780

28.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.830

Boxer Puncher

28.0 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.690

32.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.790

Counter Puncher

10.0 Kavaliauskas Confidence Low 0.420

4.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.380

Stance Advantage Kavaliauskas Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Jr. Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

64.0 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.620

58.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.670

Vs Southpaw

36.0 Kavaliauskas Confidence Medium 0.620

42.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.670

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Kavaliauskas

100 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Kavaliauskas

33.33 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Kavaliauskas

33.33 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3

59.22 Kavaliauskas

72.94 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5

60 Kavaliauskas

100 Jr.

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

77.56 Kavaliauskas

100 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

51.28 Kavaliauskas

66.67 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Kavaliauskas

33.33 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

59.22 Kavaliauskas

72.94 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

65 Kavaliauskas

100 Jr.

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Kavaliauskas stays in class.

Jr. stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Kavaliauskas height: 175.0cm reach: 180.0cm

Jr. height: 178.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Jr..

Advantage: Jr. +1.0cm

Stance Interaction

Kavaliauskas vs orthodox: 64.0

Jr. vs orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Kavaliauskas.

Advantage: Kavaliauskas

Style Interaction

Kavaliauskas style: Power Slugger

Jr. style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: medium advantage Jr..

Advantage: Jr.