Liam Paro vs Subriel Matías

Data as of: 2026-05-13 14:32:09 UTC Historical As-of 2024-06-15

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Paro vs Matías 15 Jun 2024 Result: Paro Historical Pick 72.72% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Liam Paro (U D)

Model pick Liam Paro 72.72%

Prediction result Correct

Paro odds 6.0000

Matías odds 1.1667

Paro implied 16.67%

Matías implied 85.71%

Pick odds 6

Pick implied 16.67%

Expected return 4.3633

ROI 336.33%

Edge 56.05%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:57:42 UTC

Fighter details

Liam Paro

Score 80.42 · 27-1-0 (16 KO)

Full name Liam Robert Paro

Age 30 · Rank #9 · Confidence Medium 0.665

Stance Southpaw · H/R 174cm / 180cm · AU

Subriel Matías

Score 68.29 · 23-3-0 (22 KO)

Full name Subriel Ahmed Matías Matthew

Age 34 · Rank #144 · Confidence Medium 0.671

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 180cm · PR

Liam Paro

Full name: Liam Robert Paro
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #9
Current model score: 80.42
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.665
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 174cm / 180cm
Nationality: AU
Career snapshot: 27-1-0 (16 KO)

15 Jun 2024

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Paro

Historical

73% Paro

27% Matías

Fight result: Liam Paro (U D)
Model pick: Liam Paro 72.72%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 72.72%
Market odds: 6
Implied probability: 16.67%
Expected ROI (1u): 336.33%
Value edge: 56.05%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:57:42 UTC

Subriel Matías

Full name: Subriel Ahmed Matías Matthew
Age: 34
Fighter rank: #144
Current model score: 68.29
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.671
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 175cm / 180cm
Nationality: PR
Career snapshot: 23-3-0 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

81.2 Paro Confidence High 0.760

84.5 Matías Confidence High 0.920

Punching Accuracy

90.3 Paro Confidence Medium 0.720

75.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.630

Hand Speed

88.8 Paro Confidence Medium 0.660

73.8 Matías Confidence Medium 0.570

Pace Pressure

80.5 Paro Confidence Medium 0.680

89.5 Matías Confidence High 0.880

Defensive Skill

92.3 Paro Confidence Medium 0.730

64.7 Matías Confidence Medium 0.660

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Paro Confidence Medium 0.740

64.6 Matías Confidence Medium 0.610

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.9 Paro Confidence High 0.770

66.2 Matías Confidence Medium 0.600

Counter Punching

92.1 Paro Confidence Medium 0.710

69.2 Matías Confidence Medium 0.500

Chin

90.5 Paro Confidence Medium 0.610

77.2 Matías Confidence Medium 0.580

Cardio Engine

87.9 Paro Confidence High 0.790

86.0 Matías Confidence High 0.750

Style Profile Paro: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Matías: Pressure Swarmer Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Paro Confidence Low 0.420

42.0 Matías Confidence High 0.770

Out Boxer

24.0 Paro Confidence Medium 0.630

4.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.630

Power Slugger

14.0 Paro Confidence Medium 0.520

31.0 Matías Confidence High 0.840

Boxer Puncher

38.0 Paro Confidence High 0.760

18.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.660

Counter Puncher

12.0 Paro Confidence Low 0.360

5.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.550

Stance Advantage Paro Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Matías Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

68.0 Paro Confidence Medium 0.720

42.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

32.0 Paro Confidence Medium 0.720

58.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Paro

66.67 Matías

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Paro

33.33 Matías

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Paro

66.67 Matías

Opponent Rating Last 3

62.22 Paro

67.19 Matías

Trend Score Last 5

80 Paro

60 Matías

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Paro

78.99 Matías

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

46.67 Paro

62.32 Matías

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Paro

66.67 Matías

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

62.22 Paro

67.19 Matías

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Paro

80 Matías

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Paro stays in class.

Matías moves up 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Paro.

Advantage: Paro

Reach vs Height Delta

Paro reach: 180.0cm height: 174.0cm delta: 6.0cm

Matías reach: 180.0cm height: 175.0cm delta: 5.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Paro.

Advantage: Paro

Stance Interaction

Paro advantage against orthodox: 68.0

Matías advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Paro.

Advantage: Paro

Style Interaction

Paro style: Boxer Puncher

Matías style: Pressure Swarmer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral