Richardson Hitchins vs Gustavo Lemos

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2024-04-06

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Hitchins vs Lemos 06 Apr 2024 Result: Hitchins Historical Pick 83.36% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Richardson Hitchins (U D)

Model pick Richardson Hitchins 83.36%

Prediction result Correct

Hitchins odds 1.1330

Lemos odds 7.8000

Hitchins implied 88.26%

Lemos implied 12.82%

Pick odds 1.133

Pick implied 88.26%

Expected return 0.9444

ROI -5.56%

Edge -4.91%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:58:11 UTC

Fighter details

Richardson Hitchins

Score 79.00 · 20-0-0 (8 KO)

Full name Richardson Hitchins

Age 28 · Rank #12 · Confidence Medium 0.710

Stance Orthodox · H/R 178cm / 188cm · US

IBF Super lightweight

Gustavo Lemos

Score 50.15 · 29-2-0 (19 KO)

Full name Gustavo Daniel Lemos

Age 30 · Rank #465 · Confidence Medium 0.582

Stance Orthodox · H/R 166cm / N/A · AR

Richardson Hitchins

Full name: Richardson Hitchins
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #12
Current model score: 79.00
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.710
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 178cm / 188cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 20-0-0 (8 KO)

World titles

IBF Super lightweight

06 Apr 2024

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Hitchins

Historical

83% Hitchins

17% Lemos

Fight result: Richardson Hitchins (U D)
Model pick: Richardson Hitchins 83.36%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 83.36%
Market odds: 1.133
Implied probability: 88.26%
Expected ROI (1u): -5.56%
Value edge: -4.91%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:58:11 UTC

Gustavo Lemos

Full name: Gustavo Daniel Lemos
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #465
Current model score: 50.15
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.582
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 166cm / N/A
Nationality: AR
Career snapshot: 29-2-0 (19 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

67.1 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.720

79.9 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.740

Punching Accuracy

90.3 Hitchins Confidence High 0.760

51.7 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.530

Hand Speed

92.1 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.720

64.2 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

78.1 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.660

78.6 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.670

Defensive Skill

92.3 Hitchins Confidence High 0.790

43.3 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.640

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Hitchins Confidence High 0.780

43.3 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.580

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.9 Hitchins Confidence High 0.770

43.0 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.520

Counter Punching

92.1 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.680

45.6 Lemos Confidence Low 0.440

Chin

92.1 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.610

41.6 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.660

Cardio Engine

87.9 Hitchins Confidence High 0.750

46.8 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.510

Style Profile Hitchins: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Lemos: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.630

24.0 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.580

Out Boxer

44.0 Hitchins Confidence High 0.810

6.0 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.500

Power Slugger

6.0 Hitchins Confidence High 0.780

34.0 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

30.0 Hitchins Confidence High 0.760

28.0 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.620

Counter Puncher

12.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.550

8.0 Lemos Confidence Low 0.430

Stance Advantage Hitchins Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Lemos Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.650

68.0 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.650

32.0 Lemos Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Hitchins

33.33 Lemos

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Hitchins

33.33 Lemos

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Hitchins

0 Lemos

Opponent Rating Last 3

74.11 Hitchins

65.66 Lemos

Trend Score Last 5

100 Hitchins

60 Lemos

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Hitchins

66.67 Lemos

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

37.25 Hitchins

48.81 Lemos

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Hitchins

0 Lemos

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

74.11 Hitchins

65.66 Lemos

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Hitchins

80 Lemos

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Hitchins stays in class.

Lemos stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Hitchins height: 178.0cm reach: 188.0cm

Lemos height: 166.0cm reach: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Hitchins vs orthodox: 42.0

Lemos vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: medium advantage Lemos.

Advantage: Lemos (Lemos +26.0 pts)

Style Interaction

Hitchins style: Out Boxer

Lemos style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Hitchins.

Advantage: Hitchins