Gary Russell vs Alberto Puello

Data as of: 2026-05-13 14:32:09 UTC Historical As-of 2024-06-15

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Russell vs Puello 15 Jun 2024 Result: Calderón Historical Pick 50.33% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Alberto Calderón (S D)

Model pick Alberto Puello 50.33%

Prediction result Correct

Russell odds 1.1431

Puello odds 5.8000

Russell implied 87.48%

Puello implied 17.24%

Pick odds 5.8

Pick implied 17.24%

Expected return 2.9191

ROI 191.91%

Edge 33.09%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:57:42 UTC

Fighter details

Gary Russell

Score 75.99 · 19-1-0 (17 KO)

Full name Gary Antuanne Russell

Age 29 · Rank #43 · Confidence Medium 0.641

Stance Southpaw · H/R 178cm / 175cm · US

WBA Super lightweight

Alberto Puello

Score 73.81 · 24-1-0 (10 KO)

Full name Alberto Puello Calderón

Age 31 · Rank #52 · Confidence Medium 0.651

Stance Southpaw · H/R 175cm / 180cm · DO

Gary Russell

Full name: Gary Antuanne Russell
Age: 29
Fighter rank: #43
Current model score: 75.99
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.641
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 178cm / 175cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 19-1-0 (17 KO)

World titles

WBA Super lightweight

15 Jun 2024

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Calderón

Historical

50% Russell

50% Puello

Fight result: Alberto Calderón (S D)
Model pick: Alberto Puello 50.33%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 50.33%
Market odds: 5.8
Implied probability: 17.24%
Expected ROI (1u): 191.91%
Value edge: 33.09%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:57:42 UTC

Alberto Puello

Full name: Alberto Puello Calderón
Age: 31
Fighter rank: #52
Current model score: 73.81
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.651
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 175cm / 180cm
Nationality: DO
Career snapshot: 24-1-0 (10 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.5 Russell Confidence High 0.850

55.1 Puello Confidence Medium 0.740

Punching Accuracy

88.3 Russell Confidence Medium 0.640

78.9 Puello Confidence Medium 0.610

Hand Speed

92.1 Russell Confidence Medium 0.630

81.4 Puello Confidence Medium 0.580

Pace Pressure

89.5 Russell Confidence Medium 0.720

69.9 Puello Confidence Medium 0.630

Defensive Skill

78.8 Russell Confidence Medium 0.560

90.3 Puello Confidence Medium 0.720

Distance Footwork Control

81.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.580

90.9 Puello Confidence Medium 0.730

Ring Iq Adaptability

83.6 Russell Confidence Medium 0.660

87.9 Puello Confidence High 0.750

Counter Punching

78.9 Russell Confidence Medium 0.500

87.6 Puello Confidence Medium 0.640

Chin

84.7 Russell Confidence Medium 0.530

90.3 Puello Confidence Medium 0.670

Cardio Engine

87.9 Russell Confidence Medium 0.710

87.9 Puello Confidence High 0.790

Style Profile Russell: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer vs Puello: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

28.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.720

14.0 Puello Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

14.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.580

34.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.660

Power Slugger

22.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.740

8.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.730

Boxer Puncher

30.0 Russell Confidence High 0.770

30.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.620

Counter Puncher

6.0 Russell Confidence Low 0.420

14.0 Puello Confidence Low 0.410

Stance Advantage Russell Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Puello Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.640

62.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.670

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.640

38.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.670

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Russell

66.67 Puello

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Russell

0 Puello

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Russell

33.33 Puello

Opponent Rating Last 3

65.84 Russell

79.62 Puello

Trend Score Last 5

80 Russell

80 Puello

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Russell

83.33 Puello

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

50 Russell

22.73 Puello

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Russell

33.33 Puello

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

65.84 Russell

79.62 Puello

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Russell

90 Puello

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Russell moves down 1 classes.

Puello moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Russell reach: 175.0cm height: 178.0cm delta: -3.0cm

Puello reach: 180.0cm height: 175.0cm delta: 5.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Puello.

Advantage: Puello

Stance Interaction

Russell advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Puello advantage against orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: medium advantage Russell.

Advantage: Russell

Style Interaction

Russell style: Boxer Puncher

Puello style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral