Gary Russell vs Andy Hiraoka

Data as of: 2026-05-13 14:32:09 UTC Historical As-of 2026-02-21

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Russell vs Hiraoka 21 Feb 2026 Result: Russell Historical Pick 56.25% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Gary Russell (U D)

Model pick Gary Russell 56.25%

Prediction result Correct

Russell odds 1.3003

Hiraoka odds 3.7500

Russell implied 76.91%

Hiraoka implied 26.67%

Pick odds 1.3003

Pick implied 76.91%

Expected return 0.7314

ROI -26.86%

Edge -20.65%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-21 18:57:26 UTC

Fighter details

Gary Russell

Score 74.81 · 19-1-0 (17 KO)

Full name Gary Antuanne Russell

Age 29 · Rank #43 · Confidence Medium 0.641

Stance Southpaw · H/R 178cm / 175cm · US

WBA Super lightweight

Andy Hiraoka

Score 66.62 · 24-1-0 (19 KO)

Full name Andy Justice Hiraoka

Age 29 · Rank #176 · Confidence Medium 0.564

Stance Southpaw · H/R 182cm / 188cm · JP

Gary Russell

Full name: Gary Antuanne Russell
Age: 29
Fighter rank: #43
Current model score: 74.81
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.641
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 178cm / 175cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 19-1-0 (17 KO)

World titles

WBA Super lightweight

21 Feb 2026

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Russell

Historical

56% Russell

44% Hiraoka

Fight result: Gary Russell (U D)
Model pick: Gary Russell 56.25%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 56.25%
Market odds: 1.3003
Implied probability: 76.91%
Expected ROI (1u): -26.86%
Value edge: -20.65%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-21 18:57:26 UTC

Andy Hiraoka

Full name: Andy Justice Hiraoka
Age: 29
Fighter rank: #176
Current model score: 66.62
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.564
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 182cm / 188cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 24-1-0 (19 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.5 Russell Confidence High 0.850

84.0 Hiraoka Confidence High 0.760

Punching Accuracy

88.3 Russell Confidence Medium 0.640

74.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.560

Hand Speed

92.1 Russell Confidence Medium 0.630

77.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

89.5 Russell Confidence Medium 0.720

72.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.580

Defensive Skill

78.8 Russell Confidence Medium 0.560

68.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.500

Distance Footwork Control

81.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.580

78.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.630

Ring Iq Adaptability

83.6 Russell Confidence Medium 0.660

75.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter Punching

78.9 Russell Confidence Medium 0.500

73.0 Hiraoka Confidence Low 0.470

Chin

84.7 Russell Confidence Medium 0.530

70.0 Hiraoka Confidence Low 0.440

Cardio Engine

87.9 Russell Confidence Medium 0.710

79.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.670

Style Profile Russell: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer vs Hiraoka: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

28.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.720

10.0 Hiraoka Confidence Low 0.440

Out Boxer

14.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.580

27.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.630

Power Slugger

22.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.740

18.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.580

Boxer Puncher

30.0 Russell Confidence High 0.770

37.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.720

Counter Puncher

6.0 Russell Confidence Low 0.420

8.0 Hiraoka Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Advantage Russell Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Hiraoka Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.640

58.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.620

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.640

42.0 Hiraoka Confidence Medium 0.620

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Russell

66.67 Hiraoka

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Russell

66.67 Hiraoka

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Russell

33.33 Hiraoka

Opponent Rating Last 3

65.84 Russell

65.26 Hiraoka

Trend Score Last 5

80 Russell

80 Hiraoka

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Russell

83.33 Hiraoka

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

50 Russell

71.97 Hiraoka

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Russell

33.33 Hiraoka

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

65.84 Russell

65.26 Hiraoka

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Russell

90 Hiraoka

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Russell moves down 1 classes.

Hiraoka moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Russell reach: 175.0cm height: 178.0cm delta: -3.0cm

Hiraoka reach: 188.0cm height: 182.0cm delta: 6.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Hiraoka.

Advantage: Hiraoka

Stance Interaction

Russell advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Hiraoka advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Russell.

Advantage: Russell

Style Interaction

Russell style: Boxer Puncher

Hiraoka style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral