Dalton Smith vs Alberto Puello

Data as of: 2026-09-28 08:16:13 UTC Locked prediction As of 2026-09-28 08:07:15 UTC

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Smith vs Puello 24 Oct 2026 Model pick: Puello Locked prediction 51.45% ROI: 30.69% Super lightweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Alberto Puello 51.45%

Smith odds 1.5000

Puello odds 2.5400

Smith implied 66.67%

Puello implied 39.37%

Market odds 2.54

Implied probability 39.37%

Expected return 1.3069

ROI 30.69%

Edge 12.08%

Lean Value

Bout Locked prediction

Titles on line

WBC

Super lightweight Championship

Locked prediction as of 2026-09-28 08:07:15 UTC

Fighter details

Dalton Smith

Score 72.17 · 19-0-0 (14 KO)

Full name Dalton Smith

Age 29 · Rank #64 · Confidence Medium 0.579

Stance Orthodox · H/R 177cm / 177cm · GB

WBC Super lightweight

Alberto Puello

Score 67.54 · 25-1-0 (11 KO)

Full name Alberto Puello Calderón

Age 32 · Rank #175 · Confidence Medium 0.606

Stance Southpaw · H/R 175cm / 180cm · DO

Dalton Smith

Full name: Dalton Smith
Age: 29
Fighter rank: #64
Current model score: 72.17
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.579
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 177cm / 177cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 19-0-0 (14 KO)

World titles

WBC Super lightweight

24 Oct 2026

Projected Win Split

Model pick

Puello

Locked prediction

49% Smith

51% Puello

Titles on line

WBC

Super lightweight Championship

Model pick: Alberto Puello 51.45%
Win probability: 51.45%
Market odds: 2.54
Implied probability: 39.37%
Expected ROI (1u): 30.69%
Value edge: 12.08%
Lean assessment: Value

Locked prediction as of 2026-09-28 08:07:15 UTC

Alberto Puello

Full name: Alberto Puello Calderón
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #175
Current model score: 67.54
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.606
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 175cm / 180cm
Nationality: DO
Career snapshot: 25-1-0 (11 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

86.0 Smith Confidence High 0.790

67.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.730

Punching Accuracy

81.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.660

74.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

78.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.550

76.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.520

Pace Pressure

74.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

64.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.550

Defensive Skill

79.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.580

78.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.640

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.600

80.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.640

Ring IQ Adaptability

83.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

82.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Punching

77.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.500

77.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.570

Chin

76.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.430

75.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.610

Cardio Engine

80.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.640

81.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.700

Style Profile Smith: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Puello: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.460

10.0 Puello Confidence Low 0.420

Out-Boxer

18.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.550

34.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.660

Power Slugger

17.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.500

8.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.610

Boxer-Puncher

43.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.740

36.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.690

Counter-Puncher

8.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.320

12.0 Puello Confidence Low 0.380

Stance Interaction Smith vs southpaw · Puello vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.610

62.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.660

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.610

38.0 Puello Confidence Medium 0.660

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Smith

66.67 Puello

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Smith

33.33 Puello

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Smith

33.33 Puello

Opponent Rating Last 3

68.38 Smith

66.48 Puello

Trend Score Last 5

100 Smith

80 Puello

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Smith

83.33 Puello

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

70.83 Smith

38.41 Puello

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Smith

33.33 Puello

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

68.38 Smith

66.48 Puello

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Smith

90 Puello

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Smith stays in class.

Puello stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Smith height: 177.0cm reach: 177.0cm

Puello height: 175.0cm reach: 180.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Puello.

Advantage: Puello +1.0cm

Stance Interaction

Smith vs southpaw: 38.0

Puello vs orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: medium advantage Puello.

Advantage: Puello

Style Interaction

Smith style: Boxer Puncher

Puello style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral