Dalton Smith vs Mathieu Germain

Data as of: 2026-05-13 14:32:09 UTC Historical As-of 2025-04-19

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Smith vs Germain 19 Apr 2025 Result: Smith Historical Pick 69.44% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Dalton Smith (U D)

Model pick Dalton Smith 69.44%

Prediction result Correct

Smith odds 1.0710

Germain odds 11.0000

Smith implied 93.37%

Germain implied 9.09%

Pick odds 1.071

Pick implied 93.37%

Expected return 0.7437

ROI -25.63%

Edge -23.93%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:55:36 UTC

Fighter details

Dalton Smith

Score 71.72 · 19-0-0 (14 KO)

Full name Dalton Smith

Age 29 · Rank #69 · Confidence Medium 0.582

Stance Orthodox · H/R 177cm / 177cm · GB

WBC Super lightweight

Mathieu Germain

Score 52.84 · 26-3-1 (11 KO)

Full name Mathieu Germain

Age N/A · Rank #416 · Confidence Medium 0.529

Stance Orthodox · H/R N/A / N/A · CA

Dalton Smith

Full name: Dalton Smith
Age: 29
Fighter rank: #69
Current model score: 71.72
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.582
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 177cm / 177cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 19-0-0 (14 KO)

World titles

WBC Super lightweight

19 Apr 2025

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Smith

Historical

69% Smith

31% Germain

Fight result: Dalton Smith (U D)
Model pick: Dalton Smith 69.44%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 69.44%
Market odds: 1.071
Implied probability: 93.37%
Expected ROI (1u): -25.63%
Value edge: -23.93%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:55:36 UTC

Mathieu Germain

Full name: Mathieu Germain
Age: N/A
Fighter rank: #416
Current model score: 52.84
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.529
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: N/A / N/A
Nationality: CA
Career snapshot: 26-3-1 (11 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

75.2 Smith Confidence High 0.830

46.8 Germain Confidence Medium 0.670

Punching Accuracy

84.6 Smith Confidence Medium 0.640

54.8 Germain Confidence Medium 0.530

Hand Speed

83.1 Smith Confidence Medium 0.560

47.9 Germain Confidence Low 0.420

Pace Pressure

83.7 Smith Confidence Medium 0.620

62.5 Germain Confidence Medium 0.580

Defensive Skill

80.9 Smith Confidence Medium 0.500

63.7 Germain Confidence Medium 0.560

Distance Footwork Control

79.9 Smith Confidence Medium 0.520

61.5 Germain Confidence Low 0.490

Ring Iq Adaptability

81.7 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

65.8 Germain Confidence Medium 0.620

Counter Punching

79.4 Smith Confidence Low 0.460

58.9 Germain Confidence Low 0.410

Chin

75.2 Smith Confidence Low 0.410

61.7 Germain Confidence Medium 0.630

Cardio Engine

79.4 Smith Confidence Medium 0.690

64.6 Germain Confidence Medium 0.700

Style Profile Smith: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Germain: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.420

15.0 Germain Confidence Low 0.270

Out Boxer

16.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.580

26.0 Germain Confidence Low 0.480

Power Slugger

20.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

8.0 Germain Confidence Medium 0.630

Boxer Puncher

40.0 Smith Confidence High 0.760

38.0 Germain Confidence Medium 0.610

Counter Puncher

12.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.330

13.0 Germain Confidence Very Low 0.240

Stance Advantage Smith Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Germain Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

68.0 Germain Confidence Medium 0.580

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

32.0 Germain Confidence Medium 0.580

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Smith

66.67 Germain

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Smith

0 Germain

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Smith

33.33 Germain

Opponent Rating Last 3

66.41 Smith

58.89 Germain

Trend Score Last 5

100 Smith

80 Germain

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Smith

77.78 Germain

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

70.83 Smith

0 Germain

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Smith

33.33 Germain

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

66.41 Smith

58.89 Germain

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Smith

82.5 Germain

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Smith moves down 1 classes.

Germain moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Smith reach: 177.0cm height: 177.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Germain reach: N/A height: N/A delta: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Smith advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Germain advantage against orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: medium advantage Germain.

Advantage: Germain

Style Interaction

Smith style: Boxer Puncher

Germain style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral