OWN YOUR EDGE
Zepeda vs Jr. 02 Aug 2026 Model pick: Roach Locked prediction 53.43% ROI: -21.72% Lightweight Tap to expand Analysis
Change fighters and profiles

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Lamont Roach 53.43%

Zepeda odds 2.6400

Jr. odds 1.4651

Zepeda implied 37.88%

Jr. implied 68.25%

Market odds 1.4651

Implied probability 68.25%

Expected return 0.7828

ROI -21.72%

Edge -14.83%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-06 00:58:26 UTC

Fighter details
WZ
William Zepeda

Score 85.27 · 33-1-0 (27 KO)

Full name William Zepeda Segura

Age 30 · Rank #149 · Confidence Medium 0.638

Stance Southpaw · H/R 175cm / 177cm · MX

LJ
Lamont Roach Jr.

Score 80.76 · 25-1-3 (10 KO)

Full name Lamont Roach Jr.

Age 30 · Rank #117 · Confidence Medium 0.639

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / 173cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

86.0 Zepeda Confidence High 0.800

66.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.720

Punching Accuracy

78.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.650

79.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.690

Hand Speed

80.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.650

77.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.640

Pace Pressure

92.0 Zepeda Confidence High 0.870

72.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Defensive Skill

68.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.600

83.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.740

Distance Footwork Control

73.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.600

80.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.680

Ring IQ Adaptability

72.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.620

84.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.730

Counter Punching

64.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.550

78.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.620

Chin

81.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.670

81.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.660

Cardio Engine

89.0 Zepeda Confidence High 0.820

82.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.720

Style Profile Zepeda: Pressure Swarmer Power Slugger  vs  Jr.: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

43.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.620

10.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.380

Out-Boxer

6.0 Zepeda Confidence Low 0.460

30.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Power Slugger

24.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.660

8.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer-Puncher

20.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.520

37.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.740

Counter-Puncher

7.0 Zepeda Confidence Low 0.390

15.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.310

Stance Interaction Zepeda vs orthodox  ·  Jr. vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.680

42.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Zepeda Confidence Medium 0.680

58.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Zepeda

33.33 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Zepeda

33.33 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Zepeda

33.33 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3

69.48 Zepeda

71.77 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5

80 Zepeda

80 Jr.

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Zepeda

62.82 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

43.55 Zepeda

33.97 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Zepeda

33.33 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

69.48 Zepeda

71.77 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Zepeda

82.5 Jr.

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Zepeda stays in class.

Jr. moves down 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Zepeda.

Advantage: Zepeda

Height Reach Delta

Zepeda height: 175.0cm reach: 177.0cm

Jr. height: 170.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Zepeda.

Advantage: Zepeda +9.0cm

Stance Interaction

Zepeda vs orthodox: 62.0

Jr. vs southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Zepeda style: Pressure Swarmer

Jr. style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: medium advantage Zepeda.

Advantage: Zepeda

Model: Opponent Derived Objective

Explore models · Login