Raymond Muratalla vs Robson Conceição

Data as of: 2026-07-25 03:09:56 UTC Locked prediction As of 2026-07-06 00:54:38 UTC

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Muratalla vs Conceição 02 Aug 2026 Model pick: Conceição Locked prediction 56.12% ROI: 264.77% Lightweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Robson Conceição 56.12%

Muratalla odds 1.1111

Conceição odds 6.5000

Muratalla implied 90.00%

Conceição implied 15.38%

Market odds 6.5

Implied probability 15.38%

Expected return 3.6477

ROI 264.77%

Edge 40.73%

Lean Value

Bout Locked prediction

Titles on line

IBF WBC

Lightweight Championship

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-06 00:54:38 UTC

Fighter details

Raymond Muratalla

Score 73.60 · 24-0-0 (17 KO)

Full name Raymond Muratalla

Age 29 · Rank #313 · Confidence Medium 0.573

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 183cm · US

WBC Lightweight IBF Lightweight

Robson Conceição

Score 74.44 · 19-3-1 (9 KO)

Full name Robson Donato Conceição

Age 37 · Rank #226 · Confidence Medium 0.673

Stance Orthodox · H/R 179cm / 178cm · BR

Raymond Muratalla

Full name: Raymond Muratalla
Age: 29
Fighter rank: #313
Current model score: 73.60
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.573
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 173cm / 183cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 24-0-0 (17 KO)

World titles

WBC Lightweight IBF Lightweight

02 Aug 2026

Projected Win Split

Model pick

Conceição

Locked prediction

44% Muratalla

56% Conceição

Titles on line

IBF WBC

Lightweight Championship

Model pick: Robson Conceição 56.12%
Win probability: 56.12%
Market odds: 6.5
Implied probability: 15.38%
Expected ROI (1u): 264.77%
Value edge: 40.73%
Lean assessment: Value

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-06 00:54:38 UTC

Robson Conceição

Full name: Robson Donato Conceição
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #226
Current model score: 74.44
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.673
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 179cm / 178cm
Nationality: BR
Career snapshot: 19-3-1 (9 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

82.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.710

72.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.710

Punching Accuracy

77.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.530

76.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.680

Hand Speed

76.0 Muratalla Confidence Low 0.480

79.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.700

Pace Pressure

74.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.560

74.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.650

Defensive Skill

78.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.600

78.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.720

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.620

81.0 Conceição Confidence High 0.760

Ring IQ Adaptability

81.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.640

82.0 Conceição Confidence High 0.750

Counter Punching

75.0 Muratalla Confidence Low 0.460

77.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.670

Chin

79.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.520

80.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.740

Cardio Engine

83.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.680

83.0 Conceição Confidence High 0.770

Style Profile Muratalla: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Conceição: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Muratalla Confidence Low 0.460

12.0 Conceição Confidence Low 0.450

Out-Boxer

20.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.620

34.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.720

Power Slugger

16.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.560

8.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer-Puncher

40.0 Muratalla Confidence High 0.760

36.0 Conceição Confidence High 0.760

Counter-Puncher

10.0 Muratalla Confidence Low 0.300

10.0 Conceição Confidence Low 0.380

Stance Interaction Muratalla vs orthodox · Conceição vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.620

44.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Muratalla Confidence Medium 0.620

56.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Muratalla

66.67 Conceição

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Muratalla

33.33 Conceição

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Muratalla

0 Conceição

Opponent Rating Last 3

61.71 Muratalla

65.81 Conceição

Trend Score Last 5

100 Muratalla

56.25 Conceição

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Muratalla

75.83 Conceição

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

54.76 Muratalla

36.67 Conceição

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Muratalla

0 Conceição

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

61.71 Muratalla

65.81 Conceição

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Muratalla

68.13 Conceição

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Muratalla stays in class.

Conceição moves up 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Muratalla.

Advantage: Muratalla

Height Reach Delta

Muratalla height: 173.0cm reach: 183.0cm

Conceição height: 179.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Conceição.

Advantage: Conceição +1.0cm

Stance Interaction

Muratalla vs orthodox: 42.0

Conceição vs orthodox: 44.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Muratalla style: Boxer Puncher

Conceição style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral