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Cruz vs Montoya 18 Jul 2026 Model pick: Cruz Locked prediction 87.02% ROI: -10.37% Lightweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Andy Cruz 87.02%

Cruz odds 1.0300

Montoya odds 11.0000

Cruz implied 97.09%

Montoya implied 9.09%

Market odds 1.03

Implied probability 97.09%

Expected return 0.8963

ROI -10.37%

Edge -10.07%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-15 00:55:18 UTC

Fighter details
AC
Andy Cruz

Score 77.00 · 6-1-0 (3 KO)

Full name Andy Cruz Gómez

Age 30 · Rank #21 · Confidence Medium 0.683

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 178cm · CU

AM
Abraham Montoya

Score 51.50 · 10-7-0 (10 KO)

Full name Abraham Eduardo Montoya Torres

Age N/A · Rank #590 · Confidence Low 0.461

Stance Orthodox · H/R 169cm / 173cm · MX

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

77.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.710

67.0 Montoya Confidence Medium 0.640

Punching Accuracy

87.0 Cruz Confidence High 0.810

58.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.420

Hand Speed

89.0 Cruz Confidence High 0.800

57.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.360

Pace Pressure

76.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.640

63.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.450

Defensive Skill

85.0 Cruz Confidence High 0.770

52.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.430

Distance Footwork Control

90.0 Cruz Confidence High 0.820

51.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.390

Ring IQ Adaptability

91.0 Cruz Confidence High 0.840

59.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.470

Counter Punching

88.0 Cruz Confidence High 0.780

54.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.340

Chin

78.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.490

70.0 Montoya Confidence Medium 0.610

Cardio Engine

84.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.730

68.0 Montoya Confidence Medium 0.580

Style Profile Cruz: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher  vs  Montoya: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.530

19.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.340

Out-Boxer

38.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.720

12.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.320

Power Slugger

10.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.560

18.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.480

Boxer-Puncher

30.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.690

36.0 Montoya Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter-Puncher

14.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.480

15.0 Montoya Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Interaction Cruz vs orthodox  ·  Montoya vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.620

62.0 Montoya Confidence Medium 0.570

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.620

38.0 Montoya Confidence Medium 0.570

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Cruz

66.67 Montoya

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Cruz

0 Montoya

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Cruz

66.67 Montoya

Opponent Rating Last 3

70.58 Cruz

66.51 Montoya

Trend Score Last 5

80 Cruz

60 Montoya

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Cruz

66.67 Montoya

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

41.67 Cruz

0 Montoya

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Cruz

66.67 Montoya

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

70.58 Cruz

66.51 Montoya

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Cruz

60 Montoya

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Cruz stays in class.

Montoya moves up 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Cruz.

Advantage: Cruz

Height Reach Delta

Cruz height: 175.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Montoya height: 169.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Cruz.

Advantage: Cruz +11.0cm

Stance Interaction

Cruz vs orthodox: 42.0

Montoya vs orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: medium advantage Montoya.

Advantage: Montoya

Style Interaction

Cruz style: Out Boxer

Montoya style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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