Sam Noakes vs Abdullah Mason

Data as of: 2026-05-14 00:30:50 UTC Historical As-of 2025-11-22

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Noakes vs Mason 22 Nov 2025 Result: Mason Historical Pick 75.88% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Abdullah Mason (U D)

Model pick Abdullah Mason 75.88%

Prediction result Correct

Noakes odds 4.8000

Mason odds 1.2857

Noakes implied 20.83%

Mason implied 77.78%

Pick odds 1.2857

Pick implied 77.78%

Expected return 0.9756

ROI -2.44%

Edge -1.90%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:54:00 UTC

Fighter details

Sam Noakes

Score 67.92 · 17-1-0 (15 KO)

Full name Sam Noakes

Age 28 · Rank #149 · Confidence Medium 0.582

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / N/A · GB

Abdullah Mason

Score 78.62 · 20-0-0 (17 KO)

Full name Abdullah Mason

Age 22 · Rank #18 · Confidence Medium 0.578

Stance Southpaw · H/R 175cm / 188cm · US

WBO Lightweight

Sam Noakes

Full name: Sam Noakes
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #149
Current model score: 67.92
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.582
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 173cm / N/A
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 17-1-0 (15 KO)

22 Nov 2025

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Mason

Historical

24% Noakes

76% Mason

Fight result: Abdullah Mason (U D)
Model pick: Abdullah Mason 75.88%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 75.88%
Market odds: 1.2857
Implied probability: 77.78%
Expected ROI (1u): -2.44%
Value edge: -1.90%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:54:00 UTC

Abdullah Mason

Full name: Abdullah Mason
Age: 22
Fighter rank: #18
Current model score: 78.62
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.578
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 175cm / 188cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 20-0-0 (17 KO)

World titles

WBO Lightweight

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

75.2 Noakes Confidence High 0.840

84.5 Mason Confidence High 0.800

Punching Accuracy

79.6 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.610

90.3 Mason Confidence Medium 0.700

Hand Speed

71.7 Noakes Confidence Low 0.480

92.1 Mason Confidence Medium 0.600

Pace Pressure

83.7 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.690

85.8 Mason Confidence Medium 0.600

Defensive Skill

74.1 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.550

83.2 Mason Confidence Medium 0.550

Distance Footwork Control

69.6 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.500

90.9 Mason Confidence Medium 0.650

Ring Iq Adaptability

72.3 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.580

87.9 Mason Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Punching

70.2 Noakes Confidence Low 0.430

90.5 Mason Confidence Medium 0.580

Chin

83.6 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.570

77.5 Mason Confidence Low 0.450

Cardio Engine

79.4 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.700

84.5 Mason Confidence Medium 0.640

Style Profile Noakes: Power Slugger Pressure Swarmer vs Mason: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

24.0 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.580

12.0 Mason Confidence Low 0.420

Out Boxer

10.0 Noakes Confidence Low 0.470

14.0 Mason Confidence Low 0.480

Power Slugger

38.0 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.740

22.0 Mason Confidence Medium 0.630

Boxer Puncher

22.0 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.610

40.0 Mason Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Puncher

6.0 Noakes Confidence Low 0.330

12.0 Mason Confidence Low 0.340

Stance Advantage Noakes Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Mason Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.610

68.0 Mason Confidence Medium 0.650

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Noakes Confidence Medium 0.610

32.0 Mason Confidence Low 0.380

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Noakes

100 Mason

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Noakes

66.67 Mason

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Noakes

100 Mason

Opponent Rating Last 3

61.04 Noakes

62.22 Mason

Trend Score Last 5

80 Noakes

100 Mason

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Noakes

100 Mason

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

63.33 Noakes

77.45 Mason

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Noakes

100 Mason

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

61.04 Noakes

62.22 Mason

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Noakes

100 Mason

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Noakes stays in class.

Mason stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Noakes reach: N/A height: 173.0cm delta: N/A

Mason reach: 188.0cm height: 175.0cm delta: 13.0cm

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Noakes advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Mason advantage against orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: medium advantage Mason.

Advantage: Mason

Style Interaction

Noakes style: Power Slugger

Mason style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: medium advantage Mason.

Advantage: Mason