Lucas Bahdi vs Roger Gutiérrez

Data as of: 2026-06-02 02:00:37 UTC Historical As-of 2025-08-23

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bahdi vs Gutiérrez 23 Aug 2025 Result: Bahdi Historical Pick 58.64% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Lucas Bahdi (U D)

Model pick Lucas Bahdi 58.64%

Prediction result Correct

Bahdi odds 1.1669

Gutiérrez odds 7.0000

Bahdi implied 85.70%

Gutiérrez implied 14.29%

Pick odds 1.1669

Pick implied 85.70%

Expected return 0.6843

ROI -31.57%

Edge -27.05%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:54:38 UTC

Fighter details

Lucas Bahdi

Score 68.58 · 20-0-0 (15 KO)

Full name Lucas Bahdi

Age 32 · Rank #140 · Confidence Medium 0.554

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / N/A · CA

Roger Gutiérrez

Score 57.56 · 29-7-1 (22 KO)

Full name Roger Andrés Gutiérrez Cuevas

Age 31 · Rank #402 · Confidence Medium 0.552

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 177cm · VE

Lucas Bahdi

Full name: Lucas Bahdi
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #140
Current model score: 68.58
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.554
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 175cm / N/A
Nationality: CA
Career snapshot: 20-0-0 (15 KO)

23 Aug 2025

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Bahdi

Historical

59% Bahdi

41% Gutiérrez

Fight result: Lucas Bahdi (U D)
Model pick: Lucas Bahdi 58.64%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 58.64%
Market odds: 1.1669
Implied probability: 85.70%
Expected ROI (1u): -31.57%
Value edge: -27.05%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:54:38 UTC

Roger Gutiérrez

Full name: Roger Andrés Gutiérrez Cuevas
Age: 31
Fighter rank: #402
Current model score: 57.56
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.552
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 173cm / 177cm
Nationality: VE
Career snapshot: 29-7-1 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.5 Bahdi Confidence High 0.780

80.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Medium 0.740

Punching Accuracy

78.5 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.580

66.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Low 0.480

Hand Speed

81.8 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.550

68.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Low 0.420

Pace Pressure

76.4 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.570

74.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Medium 0.610

Defensive Skill

74.0 Bahdi Confidence Low 0.460

58.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Medium 0.570

Distance Footwork Control

73.5 Bahdi Confidence Low 0.480

60.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Low 0.490

Ring Iq Adaptability

75.6 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.560

65.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Medium 0.540

Counter Punching

75.6 Bahdi Confidence Low 0.430

62.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Low 0.390

Chin

74.6 Bahdi Confidence Low 0.420

55.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Medium 0.660

Cardio Engine

82.9 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.660

69.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Medium 0.560

Style Profile Bahdi: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Gutiérrez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Bahdi Confidence Low 0.450

16.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

18.0 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.580

13.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Low 0.470

Power Slugger

28.0 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.700

31.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

34.0 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.730

34.0 Gutiérrez Confidence High 0.760

Counter Puncher

6.0 Bahdi Confidence Very Low 0.240

6.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Low 0.270

Stance Advantage Bahdi Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Gutiérrez Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.610

68.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Bahdi Confidence Medium 0.610

32.0 Gutiérrez Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Bahdi

66.67 Gutiérrez

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Bahdi

33.33 Gutiérrez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Bahdi

33.33 Gutiérrez

Opponent Rating Last 3

57.93 Bahdi

62.49 Gutiérrez

Trend Score Last 5

100 Bahdi

55 Gutiérrez

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Bahdi

73.04 Gutiérrez

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

44.12 Bahdi

47.55 Gutiérrez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Bahdi

33.33 Gutiérrez

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

57.93 Bahdi

62.49 Gutiérrez

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Bahdi

67.5 Gutiérrez

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Bahdi stays in class.

Gutiérrez stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Bahdi height: 175.0cm reach: N/A

Gutiérrez height: 173.0cm reach: 177.0cm

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Bahdi vs orthodox: 42.0

Gutiérrez vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: medium advantage Gutiérrez.

Advantage: Gutiérrez

Style Interaction

Bahdi style: Boxer Puncher

Gutiérrez style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral