OShaquie Foster vs Rey Vargas

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2023-02-11

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Foster vs Vargas 11 Feb 2023 Result: Foster Historical Pick 56.34% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result O'Shaquie Foster (U D)

Model pick OShaquie Foster 56.34%

Prediction result Correct

Foster odds 2.2500

Vargas odds 1.9091

Foster implied 44.44%

Vargas implied 52.38%

Pick odds 2.25

Pick implied 44.44%

Expected return 1.2675

ROI 26.75%

Edge 11.89%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:00:47 UTC

Fighter details

OShaquie Foster

Score 79.32 · 24-3-0 (12 KO)

Full name O'Shaquie Dominique Williams Foster

Age 32 · Rank #19 · Confidence Medium 0.691

Stance Orthodox · H/R 174cm / 183cm · US

Rey Vargas

Score 71.85 · 36-1-1 (22 KO)

Full name Rey Geovani Vargas Roldán

Age 35 · Rank #96 · Confidence Medium 0.656

Stance Orthodox · H/R 178cm / 182cm · MX

OShaquie Foster

Full name: O'Shaquie Dominique Williams Foster
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #19
Current model score: 79.32
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.691
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 174cm / 183cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 24-3-0 (12 KO)

11 Feb 2023

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Foster

Historical

56% Foster

44% Vargas

Fight result: O'Shaquie Foster (U D)
Model pick: OShaquie Foster 56.34%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 56.34%
Market odds: 2.25
Implied probability: 44.44%
Expected ROI (1u): 26.75%
Value edge: 11.89%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:00:47 UTC

Rey Vargas

Full name: Rey Geovani Vargas Roldán
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #96
Current model score: 71.85
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.656
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 178cm / 182cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 36-1-1 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

79.1 Foster Confidence High 0.770

63.7 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.680

Punching Accuracy

89.2 Foster Confidence Medium 0.690

79.9 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.660

Hand Speed

92.1 Foster Confidence Medium 0.630

76.6 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.580

Pace Pressure

70.5 Foster Confidence Medium 0.660

64.8 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.620

Defensive Skill

92.3 Foster Confidence High 0.780

89.4 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.720

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Foster Confidence High 0.770

92.5 Vargas Confidence High 0.750

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.9 Foster Confidence High 0.800

86.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.730

Counter Punching

92.1 Foster Confidence Medium 0.680

79.6 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.570

Chin

90.2 Foster Confidence Medium 0.620

76.2 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.550

Cardio Engine

87.9 Foster Confidence High 0.790

84.1 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.740

Style Profile Foster: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Vargas: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

10.0 Foster Confidence Low 0.480

14.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.620

Out Boxer

34.0 Foster Confidence Medium 0.730

41.0 Vargas Confidence High 0.830

Power Slugger

11.0 Foster Confidence Medium 0.580

10.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.670

Boxer Puncher

27.0 Foster Confidence Medium 0.690

29.0 Vargas Confidence High 0.770

Counter Puncher

18.0 Foster Confidence Medium 0.610

6.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.450

Stance Advantage Foster Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Vargas Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

68.0 Foster Confidence Medium 0.730

58.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.610

Vs Southpaw

32.0 Foster Confidence Medium 0.730

42.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.610

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Foster

33.33 Vargas

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Foster

0 Vargas

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Foster

0 Vargas

Opponent Rating Last 3

67.97 Foster

75.35 Vargas

Trend Score Last 5

80 Foster

70 Vargas

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

79.17 Foster

66.67 Vargas

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

25 Foster

31.43 Vargas

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Foster

0 Vargas

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

67.97 Foster

75.35 Vargas

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Foster

85 Vargas

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Foster moves down 2 classes.

Vargas stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Vargas.

Advantage: Vargas

Height Reach Delta

Foster height: 174.0cm reach: 183.0cm

Vargas height: 178.0cm reach: 182.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Vargas.

Advantage: Vargas +3.0cm

Stance Interaction

Foster vs orthodox: 68.0

Vargas vs orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Foster.

Advantage: Foster (Foster +10.0 pts)

Style Interaction

Foster style: Out Boxer

Vargas style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral