Robson Conceição vs Óscar Valdez

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2021-09-10

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Conceição vs Valdez 10 Sep 2021 Result: Fierro Historical Pick 68.27% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Óscar Fierro (U D)

Model pick Robson Conceição 68.27%

Prediction result Incorrect

Conceição odds 10.0000

Valdez odds 1.0952

Conceição implied 10.00%

Valdez implied 91.31%

Pick odds 10

Pick implied 10.00%

Expected return 6.8270

ROI 582.70%

Edge 58.27%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:03:43 UTC

Fighter details

Robson Conceição

Score 72.08 · 19-3-1 (9 KO)

Full name Robson Donato Conceição

Age 37 · Rank #104 · Confidence Medium 0.663

Stance Orthodox · H/R 179cm / 178cm · BR

Óscar Valdez

Score 70.91 · 33-3-0 (24 KO)

Full name Óscar Rafael Valdez Fierro Jr.

Age 35 · Rank #115 · Confidence Medium 0.701

Stance Orthodox · H/R 166cm / 168cm · MX

Robson Conceição

Full name: Robson Donato Conceição
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #104
Current model score: 72.08
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.663
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 179cm / 178cm
Nationality: BR
Career snapshot: 19-3-1 (9 KO)

10 Sep 2021

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Fierro

Historical

68% Conceição

32% Valdez

Fight result: Óscar Fierro (U D)
Model pick: Robson Conceição 68.27%
Prediction result: Incorrect
Pick probability: 68.27%
Market odds: 10
Implied probability: 10.00%
Expected ROI (1u): 582.70%
Value edge: 58.27%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:03:43 UTC

Óscar Valdez

Full name: Óscar Rafael Valdez Fierro Jr.
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #115
Current model score: 70.91
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.701
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 166cm / 168cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 33-3-0 (24 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

52.2 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.720

80.7 Valdez Confidence High 0.790

Punching Accuracy

76.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.730

73.7 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.670

Hand Speed

81.5 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.740

80.0 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.690

Pace Pressure

64.7 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.680

85.9 Valdez Confidence High 0.780

Defensive Skill

85.4 Conceição Confidence High 0.750

73.4 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.740

Distance Footwork Control

86.5 Conceição Confidence High 0.780

71.9 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.660

Ring Iq Adaptability

84.4 Conceição Confidence High 0.770

71.2 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.700

Counter Punching

80.8 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.690

79.0 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.650

Chin

84.9 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.710

77.8 Valdez Confidence High 0.760

Cardio Engine

76.9 Conceição Confidence High 0.760

76.0 Valdez Confidence High 0.750

Style Profile Conceição: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Valdez: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Conceição Confidence Low 0.420

24.0 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.650

Out Boxer

33.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.670

8.0 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.600

Power Slugger

10.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.580

18.0 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.700

Boxer Puncher

30.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.640

38.0 Valdez Confidence High 0.800

Counter Puncher

13.0 Conceição Confidence Low 0.390

12.0 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.620

Stance Advantage Conceição Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Valdez Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.620

64.0 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Conceição Confidence Medium 0.620

36.0 Valdez Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Conceição

66.67 Valdez

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Conceição

33.33 Valdez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Conceição

33.33 Valdez

Opponent Rating Last 3

65.53 Conceição

67.62 Valdez

Trend Score Last 5

56.25 Conceição

60 Valdez

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

75.83 Conceição

80.3 Valdez

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

36.67 Conceição

51.52 Valdez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Conceição

33.33 Valdez

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

65.53 Conceição

67.62 Valdez

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

68.13 Conceição

70 Valdez

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Conceição moves down 1 classes.

Valdez moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Conceição height: 179.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Valdez height: 166.0cm reach: 168.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Conceição.

Advantage: Conceição +23.0cm

Stance Interaction

Conceição vs orthodox: 42.0

Valdez vs orthodox: 64.0

Interaction: medium advantage Valdez.

Advantage: Valdez (Valdez +22.0 pts)

Style Interaction

Conceição style: Out Boxer

Valdez style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral