Emanuel Navarrete vs Liam Wilson

Data as of: 2026-05-13 14:32:09 UTC Historical As-of 2023-02-03

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Navarrete vs Wilson 03 Feb 2023 Result: Martínez Historical Pick 86.88% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Emanuel Martínez (TKO)

Model pick Emanuel Navarrete 86.88%

Prediction result Correct

Navarrete odds 1.1250

Wilson odds 9.0000

Navarrete implied 88.89%

Wilson implied 11.11%

Pick odds 1.125

Pick implied 88.89%

Expected return 0.9774

ROI -2.26%

Edge -2.01%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:00:50 UTC

Fighter details

Emanuel Navarrete

Score 76.74 · 40-2-1 (33 KO)

Full name Emanuel Navarrete Martínez

Age 31 · Rank #30 · Confidence Medium 0.649

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / 183cm · MX

IBF Super featherweight WBO Super featherweight

Liam Wilson

Score 58.03 · 18-3-0 (9 KO)

Full name Liam Wilson

Age 30 · Rank #272 · Confidence Medium 0.550

Stance Orthodox · H/R 176cm / 178cm · AU

Emanuel Navarrete

Full name: Emanuel Navarrete Martínez
Age: 31
Fighter rank: #30
Current model score: 76.74
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.649
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 170cm / 183cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 40-2-1 (33 KO)

World titles

IBF Super featherweight WBO Super featherweight

03 Feb 2023

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Martínez

Historical

87% Navarrete

13% Wilson

Fight result: Emanuel Martínez (TKO)
Model pick: Emanuel Navarrete 86.88%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 86.88%
Market odds: 1.125
Implied probability: 88.89%
Expected ROI (1u): -2.26%
Value edge: -2.01%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:00:50 UTC

Liam Wilson

Full name: Liam Wilson
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #272
Current model score: 58.03
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.550
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 176cm / 178cm
Nationality: AU
Career snapshot: 18-3-0 (9 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

93.0 Navarrete Confidence High 0.830

77.4 Wilson Confidence High 0.780

Punching Accuracy

79.5 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.660

65.2 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

82.7 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.610

68.9 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.520

Pace Pressure

97.3 Navarrete Confidence High 0.840

74.7 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.630

Defensive Skill

75.7 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.630

63.9 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.500

Distance Footwork Control

77.9 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.620

65.5 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.500

Ring Iq Adaptability

85.1 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.700

63.1 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.550

Counter Punching

77.6 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.570

69.6 Wilson Confidence Low 0.460

Chin

85.7 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.600

71.1 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.620

Cardio Engine

93.3 Navarrete Confidence High 0.760

66.5 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.660

Style Profile Navarrete: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher vs Wilson: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

43.0 Navarrete Confidence High 0.760

18.0 Wilson Confidence Low 0.470

Out Boxer

12.0 Navarrete Confidence Low 0.480

14.0 Wilson Confidence Low 0.420

Power Slugger

18.0 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.670

20.0 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.530

Boxer Puncher

22.0 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.640

34.0 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter Puncher

5.0 Navarrete Confidence Low 0.330

14.0 Wilson Confidence Low 0.340

Stance Advantage Navarrete Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Wilson Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.670

42.0 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.560

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Navarrete Confidence Medium 0.670

58.0 Wilson Confidence Medium 0.560

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Navarrete

100 Wilson

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Navarrete

66.67 Wilson

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Navarrete

100 Wilson

Opponent Rating Last 3

75.36 Navarrete

47.98 Wilson

Trend Score Last 5

73.75 Navarrete

100 Wilson

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.83 Navarrete

100 Wilson

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

72.08 Navarrete

66.67 Wilson

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Navarrete

100 Wilson

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

75.36 Navarrete

52.4 Wilson

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

86.88 Navarrete

100 Wilson

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Navarrete moves down 1 classes.

Wilson moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Navarrete reach: 183.0cm height: 170.0cm delta: 13.0cm

Wilson reach: 178.0cm height: 176.0cm delta: 2.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Navarrete.

Advantage: Navarrete

Stance Interaction

Navarrete advantage against orthodox: 62.0

Wilson advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: medium advantage Navarrete.

Advantage: Navarrete

Style Interaction

Navarrete style: Pressure Swarmer

Wilson style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral