OWN YOUR EDGE
Vargas vs Ball 08 Mar 2024 Model lean: Vargas Custom 65.60% ROI: 100.09% Tap to expand Analysis
Change fighters and profiles

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model lean Rey Vargas 65.60%

Vargas odds 3.0500

Ball odds 1.5263

Vargas implied 32.79%

Ball implied 65.52%

Pick odds 3.05

Pick implied 32.79%

Expected return 2.0009

ROI 100.09%

Edge 32.81%

Lean Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:58:24 UTC

Fighter details
RV
Rey Vargas

Score 70.06 · 36-1-1 (22 KO)

Full name Rey Geovani Vargas Roldán

Age 35 · Rank #94 · Confidence Medium 0.656

Stance Orthodox · H/R 178cm / 182cm · MX

NB
Nick Ball

Score 75.30 · 23-1-1 (13 KO)

Full name Nick Ball

Age 29 · Rank #4 · Confidence Medium 0.659

Stance Orthodox · H/R 157cm / 165cm · GB

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

63.7 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.680

87.0 Ball Confidence High 0.760

Punching Accuracy

79.9 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.660

80.7 Ball Confidence Medium 0.620

Hand Speed

76.6 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.580

84.0 Ball Confidence Medium 0.580

Pace Pressure

64.8 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.620

95.6 Ball Confidence High 0.820

Defensive Skill

89.4 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.720

77.9 Ball Confidence Medium 0.580

Distance Footwork Control

92.5 Vargas Confidence High 0.750

80.7 Ball Confidence Medium 0.630

Ring Iq Adaptability

86.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.730

85.5 Ball Confidence Medium 0.700

Counter Punching

79.6 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.570

77.4 Ball Confidence Medium 0.500

Chin

76.2 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.550

81.8 Ball Confidence Medium 0.570

Cardio Engine

84.1 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.740

95.0 Ball Confidence High 0.790

Style Profile Vargas: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher  vs  Ball: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.620

46.0 Ball Confidence High 0.760

Out Boxer

41.0 Vargas Confidence High 0.830

8.0 Ball Confidence Medium 0.630

Power Slugger

10.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.670

18.0 Ball Confidence Medium 0.680

Boxer Puncher

29.0 Vargas Confidence High 0.770

22.0 Ball Confidence Medium 0.710

Counter Puncher

6.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.450

6.0 Ball Confidence Medium 0.580

Stance Advantage Vargas Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Ball Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.610

42.0 Ball Confidence Medium 0.650

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.610

58.0 Ball Confidence Medium 0.650

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Vargas

66.67 Ball

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Vargas

33.33 Ball

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Vargas

66.67 Ball

Opponent Rating Last 3

75.35 Vargas

69.88 Ball

Trend Score Last 5

70 Vargas

80 Ball

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Vargas

81.06 Ball

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

31.43 Vargas

43.94 Ball

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Vargas

66.67 Ball

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

75.35 Vargas

69.88 Ball

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

85 Vargas

85 Ball

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Vargas stays in class.

Ball stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Vargas height: 178.0cm reach: 182.0cm

Ball height: 157.0cm reach: 165.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Vargas.

Advantage: Vargas +38.0cm

Stance Interaction

Vargas vs orthodox: 58.0

Ball vs orthodox: 42.0

Interaction: low advantage Vargas.

Advantage: Vargas

Style Interaction

Vargas style: Out Boxer

Ball style: Pressure Swarmer

Interaction: medium advantage Ball.

Advantage: Ball

Model: FiteQuant

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