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Espinoza vs Vazquez 04 May 2025 Result: Zepeda Historical Pick 73.05% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Rafael Zepeda (TKO)

Model pick Rafael Espinoza 73.05%

Prediction result Correct

Espinoza odds 1.1111

Vazquez odds 7.5000

Espinoza implied 90.00%

Vazquez implied 13.33%

Pick odds 1.1111

Pick implied 90.00%

Expected return 0.8117

ROI -18.83%

Edge -16.95%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-21 19:11:37 UTC

Fighter details
RE
Rafael Espinoza

Score 73.91 · 28-0-0 (24 KO)

Full name Rafael Espinoza Zepeda

Age 32 · Rank #48 · Confidence Medium 0.595

Stance Orthodox · H/R 185cm / 188cm · MX

EV
Edward Vazquez

Score 59.90 · 19-3-0 (6 KO)

Full name Edward Alejandro Vazquez

Age 30 · Rank #282 · Confidence Medium 0.581

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / 165cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.5 Espinoza Confidence High 0.850

58.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.710

Punching Accuracy

82.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.550

70.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

74.9 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.450

68.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.520

Pace Pressure

89.5 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.720

72.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.620

Defensive Skill

73.3 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.400

67.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.570

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.680

69.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.550

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.9 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.700

73.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.640

Counter Punching

78.1 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.420

65.0 Vazquez Confidence Low 0.460

Chin

73.7 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.380

63.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.590

Cardio Engine

87.9 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.630

74.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.680

Style Profile Espinoza: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Vazquez: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.520

14.0 Vazquez Confidence Low 0.390

Out Boxer

24.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.720

34.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.640

Power Slugger

26.0 Espinoza Confidence High 0.770

8.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.740

Boxer Puncher

28.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.740

30.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter Puncher

4.0 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.300

14.0 Vazquez Confidence Low 0.320

Stance Advantage Espinoza Advantage Vs Southpaw  vs  Vazquez Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.640

68.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.640

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.640

32.0 Vazquez Confidence Medium 0.640

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Espinoza

66.67 Vazquez

Ko Rate Last 3

100 Espinoza

66.67 Vazquez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Espinoza

100 Vazquez

Opponent Rating Last 3

63.8 Espinoza

58.28 Vazquez

Trend Score Last 5

100 Espinoza

80 Vazquez

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Espinoza

78.07 Vazquez

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Espinoza

66.67 Vazquez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Espinoza

100 Vazquez

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

63.8 Espinoza

58.28 Vazquez

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Espinoza

80 Vazquez

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Espinoza stays in class.

Vazquez moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Espinoza.

Advantage: Espinoza

Reach vs Height Delta

Espinoza reach: 188.0cm height: 185.0cm delta: 3.0cm

Vazquez reach: 165.0cm height: 170.0cm delta: -5.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Espinoza.

Advantage: Espinoza

Stance Interaction

Espinoza advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Vazquez advantage against orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: medium advantage Vazquez.

Advantage: Vazquez

Style Interaction

Espinoza style: Boxer Puncher

Vazquez style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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