Rafael Espinoza vs Sergio Sanchez

Data as of: 2026-06-02 01:00:39 UTC Historical As-of 2024-06-21

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Espinoza vs Sanchez 21 Jun 2024 Result: Zepeda Historical Pick 86.91% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Rafael Zepeda (TKO)

Model pick Rafael Espinoza 86.91%

Prediction result Correct

Espinoza odds 1.1538

Sanchez odds 6.5000

Espinoza implied 86.67%

Sanchez implied 15.38%

Pick odds 1.1538

Pick implied 86.67%

Expected return 1.0028

ROI 0.28%

Edge 0.24%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:57:41 UTC

Fighter details

Rafael Espinoza

Score 72.69 · 28-0-0 (24 KO)

Full name Rafael Espinoza Zepeda

Age 32 · Rank #47 · Confidence Medium 0.595

Stance Orthodox · H/R 185cm / 188cm · MX

Sergio Sanchez

Score 51.94 · 23-2-0 (13 KO)

Full name Sergio Alfredo Chirino Sanchez

Age 31 · Rank #481 · Confidence Medium 0.507

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 173cm · MX

Rafael Espinoza

Full name: Rafael Espinoza Zepeda
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #47
Current model score: 72.69
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.595
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 185cm / 188cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 28-0-0 (24 KO)

21 Jun 2024

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Zepeda

Historical

87% Espinoza

13% Sanchez

Fight result: Rafael Zepeda (TKO)
Model pick: Rafael Espinoza 86.91%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 86.91%
Market odds: 1.1538
Implied probability: 86.67%
Expected ROI (1u): 0.28%
Value edge: 0.24%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:57:41 UTC

Sergio Sanchez

Full name: Sergio Alfredo Chirino Sanchez
Age: 31
Fighter rank: #481
Current model score: 51.94
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.507
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 175cm / 173cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 23-2-0 (13 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.5 Espinoza Confidence High 0.850

67.0 Sanchez Confidence Medium 0.720

Punching Accuracy

82.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.550

53.4 Sanchez Confidence Medium 0.500

Hand Speed

74.9 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.450

54.5 Sanchez Confidence Low 0.420

Pace Pressure

89.5 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.720

68.9 Sanchez Confidence Medium 0.610

Defensive Skill

73.3 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.400

55.7 Sanchez Confidence Medium 0.590

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.680

54.3 Sanchez Confidence Low 0.480

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.9 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.700

48.8 Sanchez Confidence Medium 0.500

Counter Punching

78.1 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.420

55.6 Sanchez Confidence Low 0.380

Chin

73.7 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.380

51.7 Sanchez Confidence Medium 0.630

Cardio Engine

87.9 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.630

58.9 Sanchez Confidence Medium 0.580

Style Profile Espinoza: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Sanchez: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.520

24.0 Sanchez Confidence Low 0.470

Out Boxer

24.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.720

17.0 Sanchez Confidence Low 0.460

Power Slugger

26.0 Espinoza Confidence High 0.770

19.0 Sanchez Confidence Low 0.480

Boxer Puncher

28.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.740

32.0 Sanchez Confidence Medium 0.640

Counter Puncher

4.0 Espinoza Confidence Low 0.300

8.0 Sanchez Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Advantage Espinoza Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Sanchez Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.640

68.0 Sanchez Confidence Medium 0.540

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Espinoza Confidence Medium 0.640

32.0 Sanchez Confidence Low 0.340

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Espinoza

66.67 Sanchez

Ko Rate Last 3

100 Espinoza

33.33 Sanchez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Espinoza

33.33 Sanchez

Opponent Rating Last 3

63.8 Espinoza

58.65 Sanchez

Trend Score Last 5

100 Espinoza

80 Sanchez

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Espinoza

81.16 Sanchez

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Espinoza

44.93 Sanchez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Espinoza

33.33 Sanchez

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

63.8 Espinoza

58.65 Sanchez

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Espinoza

90 Sanchez

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Espinoza stays in class.

Sanchez stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Espinoza height: 185.0cm reach: 188.0cm

Sanchez height: 175.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Espinoza.

Advantage: Espinoza +25.0cm

Stance Interaction

Espinoza vs orthodox: 42.0

Sanchez vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: medium advantage Sanchez.

Advantage: Sanchez

Style Interaction

Espinoza style: Boxer Puncher

Sanchez style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral