Josh Warrington vs Mauricio Lara

Data as of: 2026-06-02 04:00:03 UTC Historical As-of 2021-02-13

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Warrington vs Lara 13 Feb 2021 Result: Acosta Historical Pick 77.31% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Mauricio Acosta (TKO)

Model pick Mauricio Lara 77.31%

Prediction result Correct

Warrington odds 1.0556

Lara odds 12.5000

Warrington implied 94.73%

Lara implied 8.00%

Pick odds 12.5

Pick implied 8.00%

Expected return 9.6635

ROI 866.35%

Edge 69.31%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:04:50 UTC

Fighter details

Josh Warrington

Score 51.62 · 32-5-1 (8 KO)

Full name Josh Warrington

Age 35 · Rank #493 · Confidence Medium 0.678

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / 170cm · GB

Mauricio Lara

Score 66.85 · 28-3-2 (21 KO)

Full name Mauricio Lara Acosta

Age 28 · Rank #232 · Confidence Medium 0.631

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / 170cm · MX

Josh Warrington

Full name: Josh Warrington
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #493
Current model score: 51.62
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.678
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 170cm / 170cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 32-5-1 (8 KO)

13 Feb 2021

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Acosta

Historical

23% Warrington

77% Lara

Fight result: Mauricio Acosta (TKO)
Model pick: Mauricio Lara 77.31%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 77.31%
Market odds: 12.5
Implied probability: 8.00%
Expected ROI (1u): 866.35%
Value edge: 69.31%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:04:50 UTC

Mauricio Lara

Full name: Mauricio Lara Acosta
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #232
Current model score: 66.85
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.631
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 170cm / 170cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 28-3-2 (21 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

43.0 Warrington Confidence High 0.760

91.1 Lara Confidence High 0.830

Punching Accuracy

49.7 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.670

74.9 Lara Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

56.0 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.600

79.9 Lara Confidence Medium 0.560

Pace Pressure

85.7 Warrington Confidence High 0.840

92.0 Lara Confidence High 0.760

Defensive Skill

46.5 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.720

63.3 Lara Confidence Medium 0.670

Distance Footwork Control

56.6 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.660

64.3 Lara Confidence Medium 0.600

Ring Iq Adaptability

50.8 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.680

58.9 Lara Confidence Medium 0.570

Counter Punching

41.9 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.580

77.3 Lara Confidence Medium 0.530

Chin

43.3 Warrington Confidence High 0.780

71.6 Lara Confidence Medium 0.620

Cardio Engine

73.1 Warrington Confidence High 0.820

64.9 Lara Confidence Medium 0.580

Style Profile Warrington: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher vs Lara: Power Slugger Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

52.0 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.740

34.0 Lara Confidence Medium 0.720

Out Boxer

12.0 Warrington Confidence Low 0.430

4.0 Lara Confidence High 0.780

Power Slugger

8.0 Warrington Confidence High 0.780

38.0 Lara Confidence High 0.820

Boxer Puncher

21.0 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.610

18.0 Lara Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter Puncher

7.0 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.510

6.0 Lara Confidence Low 0.450

Stance Advantage Warrington Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Lara Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.670

72.0 Lara Confidence Medium 0.650

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Warrington Confidence Medium 0.670

28.0 Lara Confidence Low 0.420

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Warrington

66.67 Lara

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Warrington

66.67 Lara

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Warrington

0 Lara

Opponent Rating Last 3

67.02 Warrington

49.67 Lara

Trend Score Last 5

40 Warrington

77.5 Lara

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

60.95 Warrington

76.67 Lara

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

11.43 Warrington

66.67 Lara

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Warrington

0 Lara

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

67.02 Warrington

49.67 Lara

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

55 Warrington

83.75 Lara

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Warrington stays in class.

Lara stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Warrington height: 170.0cm reach: 170.0cm

Lara height: 170.0cm reach: 170.0cm

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral 0.0cm

Stance Interaction

Warrington vs orthodox: 62.0

Lara vs orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: low advantage Lara.

Advantage: Lara

Style Interaction

Warrington style: Pressure Swarmer

Lara style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Lara.

Advantage: Lara