Carlos Castro vs Stephen Fulton

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2024-09-14

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Castro vs Fulton 14 Sep 2024 Result: Fulton Historical Pick 65.25% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Stephen Fulton (S D)

Model pick Stephen Fulton 65.25%

Prediction result Correct

Castro odds 6.5000

Fulton odds 1.1333

Castro implied 15.38%

Fulton implied 88.24%

Pick odds 1.1333

Pick implied 88.24%

Expected return 0.7395

ROI -26.05%

Edge -22.99%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:57:07 UTC

Fighter details

Carlos Castro

Score 58.69 · 30-4-0 (14 KO)

Full name Carlos Alejandro Castro Manriquez

Age 32 · Rank #384 · Confidence Medium 0.568

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 178cm · US

Stephen Fulton

Score 72.79 · 23-2-0 (8 KO)

Full name Stephen Fulton Jr.

Age 31 · Rank #60 · Confidence Medium 0.700

Stance Orthodox · H/R 169cm / 179cm · US

Carlos Castro

Full name: Carlos Alejandro Castro Manriquez
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #384
Current model score: 58.69
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.568
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 175cm / 178cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 30-4-0 (14 KO)

14 Sep 2024

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Fulton

Historical

35% Castro

65% Fulton

Fight result: Stephen Fulton (S D)
Model pick: Stephen Fulton 65.25%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 65.25%
Market odds: 1.1333
Implied probability: 88.24%
Expected ROI (1u): -26.05%
Value edge: -22.99%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:57:07 UTC

Stephen Fulton

Full name: Stephen Fulton Jr.
Age: 31
Fighter rank: #60
Current model score: 72.79
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.700
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 169cm / 179cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 23-2-0 (8 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

56.6 Castro Confidence High 0.750

45.3 Fulton Confidence High 0.750

Punching Accuracy

66.7 Castro Confidence Medium 0.580

86.3 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.690

Hand Speed

72.2 Castro Confidence Medium 0.550

89.2 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.670

Pace Pressure

69.2 Castro Confidence Medium 0.640

72.6 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.660

Defensive Skill

65.4 Castro Confidence Medium 0.670

92.3 Fulton Confidence High 0.760

Distance Footwork Control

64.4 Castro Confidence Medium 0.560

90.9 Fulton Confidence High 0.780

Ring Iq Adaptability

62.4 Castro Confidence Medium 0.600

87.9 Fulton Confidence High 0.790

Counter Punching

63.0 Castro Confidence Low 0.470

89.7 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.680

Chin

62.2 Castro Confidence Medium 0.720

70.9 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.550

Cardio Engine

62.4 Castro Confidence Medium 0.650

87.9 Fulton Confidence High 0.770

Style Profile Castro: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Fulton: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

16.0 Castro Confidence Low 0.380

12.0 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.580

Out Boxer

24.0 Castro Confidence Medium 0.520

39.0 Fulton Confidence High 0.760

Power Slugger

12.0 Castro Confidence Medium 0.500

5.0 Fulton Confidence High 0.790

Boxer Puncher

34.0 Castro Confidence Medium 0.630

29.0 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter Puncher

14.0 Castro Confidence Low 0.280

15.0 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.560

Stance Advantage Castro Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Fulton Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Castro Confidence Medium 0.580

64.0 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.720

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Castro Confidence Medium 0.580

36.0 Fulton Confidence Medium 0.720

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Castro

66.67 Fulton

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Castro

0 Fulton

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Castro

33.33 Fulton

Opponent Rating Last 3

66.26 Castro

77.18 Fulton

Trend Score Last 5

60 Castro

60 Fulton

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

63.44 Castro

81.06 Fulton

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

24.19 Castro

18.18 Fulton

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Castro

33.33 Fulton

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

66.26 Castro

77.18 Fulton

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

60 Castro

80 Fulton

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Castro stays in class.

Fulton stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Castro height: 175.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Fulton height: 169.0cm reach: 179.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Castro.

Advantage: Castro +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Castro vs orthodox: 62.0

Fulton vs orthodox: 64.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral (Fulton +2.0 pts)

Style Interaction

Castro style: Boxer Puncher

Fulton style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral