OWN YOUR EDGE
Abe vs Shimomachi 02 May 2026 Result: Shimomachi Time-safe Pick 52.46% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis
Change fighters and profiles

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Toshiki Shimomachi (M D)

Model pick Reiya Abe 52.46%

Prediction result Incorrect

Abe odds 2.6300

Shimomachi odds 1.5000

Abe implied 38.02%

Shimomachi implied 66.67%

Pick odds 2.63

Pick implied 38.02%

Expected return 1.3796

ROI 37.96%

Edge 14.44%

Lean Value

Bout Time-safe

Odds updated 2026-05-17 05:48:12 UTC

Fighter details
RA
Reiya Abe

Score 59.00 · 27-5-2 (10 KO)

Full name Reiya Abe

Age 33 · Rank #325 · Confidence Medium 0.584

Stance Southpaw · H/R 171cm / 175cm · JP

TS
Toshiki Shimomachi

Score 65.36 · 23-1-3 (12 KO)

Full name Toshiki Shimomachi

Age 29 · Rank #179 · Confidence Medium 0.611

Stance Southpaw · H/R 179cm / 174cm · JP

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

58.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.690

68.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.670

Punching Accuracy

66.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.580

74.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.640

Hand Speed

64.0 Abe Confidence Low 0.440

72.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.560

Pace Pressure

72.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.630

69.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.580

Defensive Skill

65.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.550

76.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.680

Distance Footwork Control

71.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.610

77.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.670

Ring Iq Adaptability

74.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.660

79.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.720

Counter Punching

63.0 Abe Confidence Low 0.430

73.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.570

Chin

61.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.520

75.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.600

Cardio Engine

79.0 Abe Confidence High 0.750

80.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.730

Style Profile Abe: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher  vs  Shimomachi: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Abe Confidence Low 0.410

14.0 Shimomachi Confidence Low 0.420

Out Boxer

41.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.690

38.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.690

Power Slugger

8.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.730

8.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.530

Boxer Puncher

29.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.640

28.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.660

Counter Puncher

10.0 Abe Confidence Low 0.300

12.0 Shimomachi Confidence Low 0.340

Stance Advantage Abe Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Shimomachi Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

64.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.650

68.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.660

Vs Southpaw

36.0 Abe Confidence Medium 0.650

32.0 Shimomachi Confidence Medium 0.660

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Abe

66.67 Shimomachi

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Abe

0 Shimomachi

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Abe

66.67 Shimomachi

Opponent Rating Last 3

55.67 Abe

63.24 Shimomachi

Trend Score Last 5

73.75 Abe

90 Shimomachi

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

75 Abe

83.33 Shimomachi

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

16.67 Abe

0 Shimomachi

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Abe

66.67 Shimomachi

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

55.67 Abe

63.24 Shimomachi

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

86.87 Abe

90 Shimomachi

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Abe stays in class.

Shimomachi stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Abe reach: 175.0cm height: 171.0cm delta: 4.0cm

Shimomachi reach: 174.0cm height: 179.0cm delta: -5.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Abe.

Advantage: Abe

Stance Interaction

Abe advantage against orthodox: 64.0

Shimomachi advantage against orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Abe

Style Interaction

Abe style: Out Boxer

Shimomachi style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

Explore models · Login