Seiya Tsutsumi vs Nonito Donaire

Data as of: 2026-06-03 14:34:30 UTC Historical As-of 2025-12-17

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Tsutsumi vs Donaire 17 Dec 2025 Result: Tsutsumi Historical Pick 69.77% Prediction: Correct Bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Seiya Tsutsumi (S D)

Model pick Seiya Tsutsumi 69.77%

Prediction result Correct

Tsutsumi odds 1.3077

Donaire odds 3.7500

Tsutsumi implied 76.47%

Donaire implied 26.67%

Pick odds 1.3077

Pick implied 76.47%

Expected return 0.9124

ROI -8.76%

Edge -6.70%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:53:38 UTC

Fighter details

Seiya Tsutsumi

Score 70.45 · 13-0-3 (8 KO)

Full name Seiya Tsutsumi

Age 30 · Rank #86 · Confidence Medium 0.594

Stance Orthodox · H/R 166cm / 164cm · JP

WBA Bantamweight

Nonito Donaire

Score 50.91 · 43-10-0 (28 KO)

Full name Nonito Gonzales Donaire Jr.

Age 43 · Rank #488 · Confidence Medium 0.719

Stance Orthodox · H/R 168cm / 173cm · US

Seiya Tsutsumi

Full name: Seiya Tsutsumi
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #86
Current model score: 70.45
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.594
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 166cm / 164cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 13-0-3 (8 KO)

World titles

WBA Bantamweight

17 Dec 2025

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Tsutsumi

Historical

70% Tsutsumi

30% Donaire

Fight result: Seiya Tsutsumi (S D)
Model pick: Seiya Tsutsumi 69.77%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 69.77%
Market odds: 1.3077
Implied probability: 76.47%
Expected ROI (1u): -8.76%
Value edge: -6.70%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:53:38 UTC

Nonito Donaire

Full name: Nonito Gonzales Donaire Jr.
Age: 43
Fighter rank: #488
Current model score: 50.91
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.719
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 168cm / 173cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 43-10-0 (28 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

75.2 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.730

58.3 Donaire Confidence High 0.820

Punching Accuracy

80.5 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.640

53.8 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.740

Hand Speed

72.9 Tsutsumi Confidence Low 0.480

52.0 Donaire Confidence High 0.760

Pace Pressure

83.7 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.720

40.7 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

Defensive Skill

83.2 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.610

47.6 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.720

Distance Footwork Control

73.7 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.530

45.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.700

Ring Iq Adaptability

81.7 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.700

69.7 Donaire Confidence High 0.800

Counter Punching

74.1 Tsutsumi Confidence Low 0.450

80.3 Donaire Confidence High 0.810

Chin

88.3 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.690

44.8 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.690

Cardio Engine

79.4 Tsutsumi Confidence High 0.780

42.7 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.710

Style Profile Tsutsumi: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher vs Donaire: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

30.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.580

8.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.560

Out Boxer

14.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Low 0.460

14.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.660

Power Slugger

18.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.500

27.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.740

Boxer Puncher

28.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.630

31.0 Donaire Confidence High 0.780

Counter Puncher

10.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Low 0.320

20.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.690

Stance Advantage Tsutsumi Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Donaire Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.640

42.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.640

58.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Tsutsumi

33.33 Donaire

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Tsutsumi

0 Donaire

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Tsutsumi

100 Donaire

Opponent Rating Last 3

75.01 Tsutsumi

68.85 Donaire

Trend Score Last 5

90 Tsutsumi

20 Donaire

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

75.64 Tsutsumi

58.67 Donaire

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30.77 Tsutsumi

28 Donaire

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Tsutsumi

100 Donaire

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

75.01 Tsutsumi

68.85 Donaire

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

95 Tsutsumi

50 Donaire

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Tsutsumi stays in class.

Donaire stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Tsutsumi height: 166.0cm reach: 164.0cm

Donaire height: 168.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Donaire.

Advantage: Donaire +11.0cm

Stance Interaction

Tsutsumi vs orthodox: 58.0

Donaire vs orthodox: 42.0

Interaction: low advantage Tsutsumi.

Advantage: Tsutsumi

Style Interaction

Tsutsumi style: Pressure Swarmer

Donaire style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral