Takuma Inoue vs Kazuto Ioka

Data as of: 2026-05-17 07:41:50 UTC Time-safe As-of 2026-05-02

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Ioka 02 May 2026 Result: Inoue Time-safe Pick 61.16% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Takuma Inoue (U D)

Model pick Kazuto Ioka 61.16%

Prediction result Incorrect

Inoue odds 1.4348

Ioka odds 2.7600

Inoue implied 69.70%

Ioka implied 36.23%

Pick odds 2.76

Pick implied 36.23%

Expected return 1.6881

ROI 68.81%

Edge 24.93%

Lean Value

Bout Time-safe

Odds updated 2026-05-17 05:48:12 UTC

Fighter details

Takuma Inoue

Score 68.31 · 22-2-0 (5 KO)

Full name Takuma Inoue

Age 30 · Rank #117 · Confidence Medium 0.674

Stance Orthodox · H/R 164cm / 164cm · JP

WBC Bantamweight

Kazuto Ioka

Score 72.88 · 32-5-1 (17 KO)

Full name Kazuto Ioka

Age 37 · Rank #63 · Confidence Medium 0.696

Stance Orthodox · H/R 164cm / 164cm · JP

Takuma Inoue

Full name: Takuma Inoue
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #117
Current model score: 68.31
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.674
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 164cm / 164cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 22-2-0 (5 KO)

World titles

WBC Bantamweight

02 May 2026

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Inoue

Time-safe

39% Inoue

61% Ioka

Fight result: Takuma Inoue (U D)
Model pick: Kazuto Ioka 61.16%
Prediction result: Incorrect
Pick probability: 61.16%
Market odds: 2.76
Implied probability: 36.23%
Expected ROI (1u): 68.81%
Value edge: 24.93%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-05-17 05:48:12 UTC

Kazuto Ioka

Full name: Kazuto Ioka
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #63
Current model score: 72.88
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.696
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 164cm / 164cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 32-5-1 (17 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

59.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.800

76.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.760

Punching Accuracy

78.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.690

84.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.740

Hand Speed

80.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.620

79.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.660

Pace Pressure

66.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.660

74.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.700

Defensive Skill

79.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

82.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.730

Distance Footwork Control

81.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.710

80.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.680

Ring Iq Adaptability

83.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.740

87.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.800

Counter Punching

74.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.580

81.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.690

Chin

76.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

78.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.640

Cardio Engine

84.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.780

83.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.760

Style Profile Inoue: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Ioka: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.580

18.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.620

Out Boxer

43.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.780

20.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.660

Power Slugger

6.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

10.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.710

Boxer Puncher

24.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.670

37.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.780

Counter Puncher

15.0 Inoue Confidence Low 0.460

15.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.530

Stance Advantage Inoue Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Ioka Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

43.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.630

58.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.690

Vs Southpaw

57.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.630

42.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.690

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Inoue

33.33 Ioka

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

33.33 Ioka

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Inoue

100 Ioka

Opponent Rating Last 3

73.4 Inoue

60.32 Ioka

Trend Score Last 5

80 Inoue

40 Ioka

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.95 Inoue

60.95 Ioka

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

11.9 Inoue

39.52 Ioka

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Inoue

100 Ioka

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

73.4 Inoue

60.32 Ioka

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Inoue

65 Ioka

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Ioka stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Inoue reach: 164.0cm height: 164.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Ioka reach: 164.0cm height: 164.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Inoue advantage against southpaw: 57.0

Ioka advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Ioka.

Advantage: Ioka

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Out Boxer

Ioka style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral