Takuma Inoue vs Tenshin Nasukawa

Data as of: 2026-06-01 14:35:20 UTC Historical As-of 2025-11-24

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Nasukawa 24 Nov 2025 Result: Inoue Historical Pick 77.00% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Takuma Inoue (U D)

Model pick Tenshin Nasukawa 77.00%

Prediction result Incorrect

Inoue odds 4.0000

Nasukawa odds 1.3077

Inoue implied 25.00%

Nasukawa implied 76.47%

Pick odds 1.3077

Pick implied 76.47%

Expected return 1.0069

ROI 0.69%

Edge 0.53%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-21 19:09:05 UTC

Fighter details

Takuma Inoue

Score 68.21 · 22-2-0 (5 KO)

Full name Takuma Inoue

Age 30 · Rank #113 · Confidence Medium 0.674

Stance Orthodox · H/R 164cm / 164cm · JP

WBC Bantamweight

Tenshin Nasukawa

Score 75.75 · 9-1-0 (4 KO)

Full name Tenshin Nasukawa

Age 27 · Rank #31 · Confidence Medium 0.681

Stance Southpaw · H/R 165cm / 176cm · JP

Takuma Inoue

Full name: Takuma Inoue
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #113
Current model score: 68.21
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.674
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 164cm / 164cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 22-2-0 (5 KO)

World titles

WBC Bantamweight

24 Nov 2025

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Inoue

Historical

23% Inoue

77% Nasukawa

Fight result: Takuma Inoue (U D)
Model pick: Tenshin Nasukawa 77.00%
Prediction result: Incorrect
Pick probability: 77.00%
Market odds: 1.3077
Implied probability: 76.47%
Expected ROI (1u): 0.69%
Value edge: 0.53%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-21 19:09:05 UTC

Tenshin Nasukawa

Full name: Tenshin Nasukawa
Age: 27
Fighter rank: #31
Current model score: 75.75
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.681
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 165cm / 176cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 9-1-0 (4 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

59.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.800

73.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.690

Punching Accuracy

78.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.690

84.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.740

Hand Speed

80.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.620

91.0 Nasukawa Confidence High 0.820

Pace Pressure

66.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.660

76.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.660

Defensive Skill

79.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

83.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.730

Distance Footwork Control

81.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.710

88.0 Nasukawa Confidence High 0.780

Ring Iq Adaptability

83.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.740

86.0 Nasukawa Confidence High 0.750

Counter Punching

74.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.580

87.0 Nasukawa Confidence High 0.770

Chin

76.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

79.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.570

Cardio Engine

84.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.780

85.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.740

Style Profile Inoue: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Nasukawa: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.580

12.0 Nasukawa Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

43.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.780

38.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.740

Power Slugger

6.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

6.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.700

Boxer Puncher

24.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.670

28.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.630

Counter Puncher

15.0 Inoue Confidence Low 0.460

16.0 Nasukawa Confidence Low 0.420

Stance Advantage Inoue Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Nasukawa Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

43.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.630

68.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.690

Vs Southpaw

57.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.630

32.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.690

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Inoue

66.67 Nasukawa

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

33.33 Nasukawa

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Inoue

100 Nasukawa

Opponent Rating Last 3

73.4 Inoue

65.53 Nasukawa

Trend Score Last 5

80 Inoue

80 Nasukawa

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.95 Inoue

83.33 Nasukawa

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

11.9 Inoue

33.33 Nasukawa

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Inoue

100 Nasukawa

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

73.4 Inoue

65.53 Nasukawa

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Inoue

90 Nasukawa

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Nasukawa stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Inoue height: 164.0cm reach: 164.0cm

Nasukawa height: 165.0cm reach: 176.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Nasukawa.

Advantage: Nasukawa +13.0cm

Stance Interaction

Inoue vs southpaw: 57.0

Nasukawa vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: low advantage Nasukawa.

Advantage: Nasukawa

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Out Boxer

Nasukawa style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral