Takuma Inoue vs Tenshin Nasukawa

Data as of: 2026-09-02 15:54:12 UTC Locked prediction As of 2026-09-02 15:53:53 UTC

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Nasukawa 27 Sep 2026 Model pick: Nasukawa Locked prediction 73.38% ROI: 106.93% Bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Tenshin Nasukawa 73.38%

Inoue odds 1.3846

Nasukawa odds 2.8200

Inoue implied 72.22%

Nasukawa implied 35.46%

Market odds 2.82

Implied probability 35.46%

Expected return 2.0693

ROI 106.93%

Edge 37.92%

Lean Value

Bout Locked prediction

Titles on line

WBC

Bantamweight Championship

Locked prediction as of 2026-09-02 15:53:53 UTC

Fighter details

Takuma Inoue

Score 70.69 · 22-2-0 (5 KO)

Full name Takuma Inoue

Age 30 · Rank #99 · Confidence Medium 0.637

Stance Orthodox · H/R 164cm / 164cm · JP

WBC Bantamweight

Tenshin Nasukawa

Score 75.19 · 9-1-0 (4 KO)

Full name Tenshin Nasukawa

Age 28 · Rank #36 · Confidence Medium 0.676

Stance Southpaw · H/R 165cm / 176cm · JP

Takuma Inoue

Full name: Takuma Inoue
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #99
Current model score: 70.69
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.637
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 164cm / 164cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 22-2-0 (5 KO)

World titles

WBC Bantamweight

27 Sep 2026

Projected Win Split

Model pick

Nasukawa

Locked prediction

27% Inoue

73% Nasukawa

Titles on line

WBC

Bantamweight Championship

Model pick: Tenshin Nasukawa 73.38%
Win probability: 73.38%
Market odds: 2.82
Implied probability: 35.46%
Expected ROI (1u): 106.93%
Value edge: 37.92%
Lean assessment: Value

Locked prediction as of 2026-09-02 15:53:53 UTC

Tenshin Nasukawa

Full name: Tenshin Nasukawa
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #36
Current model score: 75.19
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.676
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 165cm / 176cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 9-1-0 (4 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

62.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.770

68.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.660

Punching Accuracy

78.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.630

79.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.720

Hand Speed

81.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.580

89.0 Nasukawa Confidence High 0.820

Pace Pressure

69.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.600

74.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.680

Defensive Skill

82.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.700

80.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.730

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.680

86.0 Nasukawa Confidence High 0.780

Ring IQ Adaptability

84.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

83.0 Nasukawa Confidence High 0.760

Counter Punching

76.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

84.0 Nasukawa Confidence High 0.750

Chin

79.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.670

75.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.580

Cardio Engine

83.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.760

82.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.740

Style Profile Inoue: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Nasukawa: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Inoue Confidence Low 0.450

12.0 Nasukawa Confidence Low 0.490

Out-Boxer

43.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

38.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.720

Power Slugger

6.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.820

8.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.710

Boxer-Puncher

25.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.580

28.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter-Puncher

14.0 Inoue Confidence Low 0.340

14.0 Nasukawa Confidence Low 0.410

Stance Interaction Inoue vs southpaw · Nasukawa vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.630

68.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.640

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.630

32.0 Nasukawa Confidence Medium 0.640

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Inoue

66.67 Nasukawa

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

66.67 Nasukawa

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Inoue

100 Nasukawa

Opponent Rating Last 3

74.95 Inoue

72.88 Nasukawa

Trend Score Last 5

80 Inoue

80 Nasukawa

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.95 Inoue

83.33 Nasukawa

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

11.9 Inoue

66.67 Nasukawa

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Inoue

100 Nasukawa

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

74.95 Inoue

72.88 Nasukawa

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Inoue

90 Nasukawa

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Nasukawa stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Inoue height: 164.0cm reach: 164.0cm

Nasukawa height: 165.0cm reach: 176.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Nasukawa.

Advantage: Nasukawa +13.0cm

Stance Interaction

Inoue vs southpaw: 58.0

Nasukawa vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: low advantage Nasukawa.

Advantage: Nasukawa

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Out Boxer

Nasukawa style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral