Riku Masuda vs Nonito Donaire

Data as of: 2026-06-03 14:34:30 UTC Historical As-of 2026-03-15

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Masuda vs Donaire 15 Mar 2026 Result: Masuda Historical Pick 72.47% Prediction: Correct Bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Riku Masuda (TKO)

Model pick Riku Masuda 72.47%

Prediction result Correct

Masuda odds 1.5263

Donaire odds 2.7500

Masuda implied 65.52%

Donaire implied 36.36%

Pick odds 1.5263

Pick implied 65.52%

Expected return 1.1061

ROI 10.61%

Edge 6.95%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:52:57 UTC

Fighter details

Riku Masuda

Score 64.88 · 10-1-0 (9 KO)

Full name Riku Masuda

Age 28 · Rank #189 · Confidence Medium 0.522

Stance Southpaw · H/R 169cm / 175cm · JP

Nonito Donaire

Score 50.75 · 43-10-0 (28 KO)

Full name Nonito Gonzales Donaire Jr.

Age 43 · Rank #488 · Confidence Medium 0.719

Stance Orthodox · H/R 168cm / 173cm · US

Riku Masuda

Full name: Riku Masuda
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #189
Current model score: 64.88
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.522
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 169cm / 175cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 10-1-0 (9 KO)

15 Mar 2026

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Masuda

Historical

72% Masuda

28% Donaire

Fight result: Riku Masuda (TKO)
Model pick: Riku Masuda 72.47%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 72.47%
Market odds: 1.5263
Implied probability: 65.52%
Expected ROI (1u): 10.61%
Value edge: 6.95%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:52:57 UTC

Nonito Donaire

Full name: Nonito Gonzales Donaire Jr.
Age: 43
Fighter rank: #488
Current model score: 50.75
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.719
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 168cm / 173cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 43-10-0 (28 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

65.7 Masuda Confidence High 0.870

58.3 Donaire Confidence High 0.820

Punching Accuracy

76.6 Masuda Confidence Medium 0.620

53.8 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.740

Hand Speed

77.8 Masuda Confidence Medium 0.500

52.0 Donaire Confidence High 0.760

Pace Pressure

76.8 Masuda Confidence Medium 0.580

40.7 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

Defensive Skill

72.2 Masuda Confidence Low 0.450

47.6 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.720

Distance Footwork Control

71.0 Masuda Confidence Low 0.460

45.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.700

Ring Iq Adaptability

73.0 Masuda Confidence Medium 0.560

69.7 Donaire Confidence High 0.800

Counter Punching

76.2 Masuda Confidence Low 0.430

80.3 Donaire Confidence High 0.810

Chin

74.0 Masuda Confidence Low 0.410

44.8 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.690

Cardio Engine

62.2 Masuda Confidence Low 0.470

42.7 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.710

Style Profile Masuda: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher vs Donaire: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Masuda Confidence Low 0.460

8.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.560

Out Boxer

7.0 Masuda Confidence Low 0.330

14.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.660

Power Slugger

45.0 Masuda Confidence High 0.790

27.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.740

Boxer Puncher

22.0 Masuda Confidence Medium 0.540

31.0 Donaire Confidence High 0.780

Counter Puncher

8.0 Masuda Confidence Low 0.310

20.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.690

Stance Advantage Masuda Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Donaire Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

72.0 Masuda Confidence Medium 0.660

42.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

28.0 Masuda Confidence Low 0.440

58.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Masuda

33.33 Donaire

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Masuda

0 Donaire

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Masuda

100 Donaire

Opponent Rating Last 3

65.28 Masuda

68.85 Donaire

Trend Score Last 5

100 Masuda

20 Donaire

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Masuda

58.67 Donaire

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

77.08 Masuda

28 Donaire

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Masuda

100 Donaire

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

65.28 Masuda

68.85 Donaire

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Masuda

50 Donaire

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Masuda stays in class.

Donaire stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Masuda height: 169.0cm reach: 175.0cm

Donaire height: 168.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Masuda.

Advantage: Masuda +3.0cm

Stance Interaction

Masuda vs orthodox: 72.0

Donaire vs southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Masuda.

Advantage: Masuda

Style Interaction

Masuda style: Power Slugger

Donaire style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: medium advantage Donaire.

Advantage: Donaire