Kazuto Ioka vs Kosei Tanaka

Data as of: 2026-05-14 01:13:22 UTC Historical As-of 2020-12-31

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Ioka vs Tanaka 31 Dec 2020 Result: Ioka Historical Pick 59.01% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Kazuto Ioka (TKO)

Model pick Kosei Tanaka 59.01%

Prediction result Incorrect

Ioka odds 2.4500

Tanaka odds 1.6061

Ioka implied 40.82%

Tanaka implied 62.26%

Pick odds 1.6061

Pick implied 62.26%

Expected return 0.9477

ROI -5.23%

Edge -3.25%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:04:55 UTC

Fighter details

Kazuto Ioka

Score 73.30 · 32-5-1 (17 KO)

Full name Kazuto Ioka

Age 37 · Rank #63 · Confidence Medium 0.696

Stance Orthodox · H/R 164cm / 164cm · JP

Kosei Tanaka

Score 77.96 · 20-2-0 (11 KO)

Full name Kosei Tanaka

Age 30 · Rank #2 · Confidence Medium 0.656

Stance Orthodox · H/R 164cm / 164cm · JP

Kazuto Ioka

Full name: Kazuto Ioka
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #63
Current model score: 73.30
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.696
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 164cm / 164cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 32-5-1 (17 KO)

31 Dec 2020

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Ioka

Historical

41% Ioka

59% Tanaka

Fight result: Kazuto Ioka (TKO)
Model pick: Kosei Tanaka 59.01%
Prediction result: Incorrect
Pick probability: 59.01%
Market odds: 1.6061
Implied probability: 62.26%
Expected ROI (1u): -5.23%
Value edge: -3.25%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:04:55 UTC

Kosei Tanaka

Full name: Kosei Tanaka
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #2
Current model score: 77.96
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.656
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 164cm / 164cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 20-2-0 (11 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

76.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.760

77.7 Tanaka Confidence High 0.770

Punching Accuracy

84.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.740

92.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.700

Hand Speed

79.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.660

95.0 Tanaka Confidence High 0.760

Pace Pressure

74.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.700

87.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.710

Defensive Skill

82.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.730

78.6 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.690

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.680

86.4 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.660

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.800

92.1 Tanaka Confidence High 0.750

Counter Punching

81.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.690

85.1 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.620

Chin

78.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.640

70.3 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.660

Cardio Engine

83.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.760

90.6 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.720

Style Profile Ioka: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Tanaka: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.620

22.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.550

Out Boxer

20.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.660

16.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.520

Power Slugger

10.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.710

14.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.600

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.780

34.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.720

Counter Puncher

15.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.530

14.0 Tanaka Confidence Low 0.430

Stance Advantage Ioka Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Tanaka Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.690

58.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.650

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.690

42.0 Tanaka Confidence Medium 0.650

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Ioka

66.67 Tanaka

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Ioka

33.33 Tanaka

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Ioka

0 Tanaka

Opponent Rating Last 3

60.32 Ioka

59.95 Tanaka

Trend Score Last 5

40 Ioka

80 Tanaka

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

60.95 Ioka

80.7 Tanaka

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

39.52 Ioka

42.98 Tanaka

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Ioka

0 Tanaka

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

60.32 Ioka

59.95 Tanaka

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

65 Ioka

80 Tanaka

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Ioka moves down 1 classes.

Tanaka stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Tanaka.

Advantage: Tanaka

Reach vs Height Delta

Ioka reach: 164.0cm height: 164.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Tanaka reach: 164.0cm height: 164.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Ioka advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Tanaka advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Ioka style: Boxer Puncher

Tanaka style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral