Kazuto Ioka vs Fernando Martinez

Data as of: 2026-05-14 00:36:19 UTC Historical As-of 2025-05-11

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Ioka vs Martinez 11 May 2025 Result: Martínez Historical Pick 54.10% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Fernando Martínez (U D)

Model pick Fernando Martinez 54.10%

Prediction result Correct

Ioka odds 4.0000

Martinez odds 1.2632

Ioka implied 25.00%

Martinez implied 79.16%

Pick odds 1.2632

Pick implied 79.16%

Expected return 0.6834

ROI -31.66%

Edge -25.06%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:55:26 UTC

Fighter details

Kazuto Ioka

Score 72.99 · 32-5-1 (17 KO)

Full name Kazuto Ioka

Age 37 · Rank #63 · Confidence Medium 0.696

Stance Orthodox · H/R 164cm / 164cm · JP

Fernando Martinez

Score 73.92 · 18-1-0 (9 KO)

Full name Fernando Daniel Martínez

Age 34 · Rank #53 · Confidence Medium 0.657

Stance Orthodox · H/R 157cm / 163cm · AR

Kazuto Ioka

Full name: Kazuto Ioka
Age: 37
Fighter rank: #63
Current model score: 72.99
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.696
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 164cm / 164cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 32-5-1 (17 KO)

11 May 2025

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Martínez

Historical

46% Ioka

54% Martinez

Fight result: Fernando Martínez (U D)
Model pick: Fernando Martinez 54.10%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 54.10%
Market odds: 1.2632
Implied probability: 79.16%
Expected ROI (1u): -31.66%
Value edge: -25.06%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 12:55:26 UTC

Fernando Martinez

Full name: Fernando Daniel Martínez
Age: 34
Fighter rank: #53
Current model score: 73.92
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.657
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 157cm / 163cm
Nationality: AR
Career snapshot: 18-1-0 (9 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

76.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.760

72.4 Martinez Confidence High 0.790

Punching Accuracy

84.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.740

84.6 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.710

Hand Speed

79.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.660

84.5 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.680

Pace Pressure

74.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.700

83.7 Martinez Confidence High 0.860

Defensive Skill

82.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.730

80.4 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.670

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.680

78.8 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.640

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.800

81.7 Martinez Confidence High 0.780

Counter Punching

81.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.690

78.8 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.580

Chin

78.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.640

80.8 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.690

Cardio Engine

83.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.760

79.4 Martinez Confidence High 0.850

Style Profile Ioka: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Martinez: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.620

42.0 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.730

Out Boxer

20.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.660

10.0 Martinez Confidence Low 0.420

Power Slugger

10.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.710

16.0 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.520

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Ioka Confidence High 0.780

28.0 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.690

Counter Puncher

15.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.530

4.0 Martinez Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Advantage Ioka Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Martinez Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.690

36.0 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.640

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Ioka Confidence Medium 0.690

64.0 Martinez Confidence Medium 0.640

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Ioka

66.67 Martinez

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Ioka

0 Martinez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Ioka

66.67 Martinez

Opponent Rating Last 3

60.32 Ioka

80.18 Martinez

Trend Score Last 5

40 Ioka

80 Martinez

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

60.95 Ioka

83.33 Martinez

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

39.52 Ioka

28.13 Martinez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Ioka

66.67 Martinez

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

60.32 Ioka

80.18 Martinez

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

65 Ioka

90 Martinez

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Ioka moves down 1 classes.

Martinez stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Martinez.

Advantage: Martinez

Reach vs Height Delta

Ioka reach: 164.0cm height: 164.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Martinez reach: 163.0cm height: 157.0cm delta: 6.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Martinez.

Advantage: Martinez

Stance Interaction

Ioka advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Martinez advantage against southpaw: 64.0

Interaction: medium advantage Ioka.

Advantage: Ioka

Style Interaction

Ioka style: Boxer Puncher

Martinez style: Pressure Swarmer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral