Nonito Donaire vs Carl Frampton

Data as of: 2026-06-03 14:34:30 UTC Historical As-of 2018-04-21

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Donaire vs Frampton 21 Apr 2018 Result: Frampton Historical Pick 71.60% Prediction: Correct Featherweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Carl Frampton (U D)

Model pick Carl Frampton 71.60%

Prediction result Correct

Donaire odds 6.0000

Frampton odds 1.1667

Donaire implied 16.67%

Frampton implied 85.71%

Pick odds 1.1667

Pick implied 85.71%

Expected return 0.8353

ROI -16.47%

Edge -14.11%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:10:20 UTC

Fighter details

Nonito Donaire

Score 51.88 · 43-10-0 (28 KO)

Full name Nonito Gonzales Donaire Jr.

Age 43 · Rank #488 · Confidence Medium 0.719

Stance Orthodox · H/R 168cm / 173cm · US

Carl Frampton

Score 77.29 · 28-3-0 (16 KO)

Full name Carl Frampton

Age 39 · Rank Unranked · Confidence Medium 0.701

Stance Orthodox · H/R 165cm / 157cm · IE

Nonito Donaire

Full name: Nonito Gonzales Donaire Jr.
Age: 43
Fighter rank: #488
Current model score: 51.88
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.719
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 168cm / 173cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 43-10-0 (28 KO)

21 Apr 2018

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Frampton

Historical

28% Donaire

72% Frampton

Fight result: Carl Frampton (U D)
Model pick: Carl Frampton 71.60%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 71.60%
Market odds: 1.1667
Implied probability: 85.71%
Expected ROI (1u): -16.47%
Value edge: -14.11%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:10:20 UTC

Carl Frampton

Full name: Carl Frampton
Age: 39
Fighter rank: Unranked
Current model score: 77.29
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.701
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 165cm / 157cm
Nationality: IE
Career snapshot: 28-3-0 (16 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

58.3 Donaire Confidence High 0.820

71.2 Frampton Confidence High 0.780

Punching Accuracy

53.8 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.740

88.8 Frampton Confidence High 0.760

Hand Speed

52.0 Donaire Confidence High 0.760

88.6 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.720

Pace Pressure

40.7 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

81.7 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.730

Defensive Skill

47.6 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.720

88.8 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.740

Distance Footwork Control

45.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.700

89.4 Frampton Confidence High 0.770

Ring Iq Adaptability

69.7 Donaire Confidence High 0.800

91.4 Frampton Confidence High 0.800

Counter Punching

80.3 Donaire Confidence High 0.810

93.0 Frampton Confidence High 0.770

Chin

44.8 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.690

81.0 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.680

Cardio Engine

42.7 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.710

79.4 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.740

Style Profile Donaire: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Frampton: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.560

18.0 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.550

Out Boxer

14.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.660

20.0 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.640

Power Slugger

27.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.740

14.0 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.600

Boxer Puncher

31.0 Donaire Confidence High 0.780

38.0 Frampton Confidence High 0.770

Counter Puncher

20.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.690

10.0 Frampton Confidence Low 0.420

Stance Advantage Donaire Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Frampton Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

68.0 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.720

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

32.0 Frampton Confidence Medium 0.720

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Donaire

66.67 Frampton

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Donaire

33.33 Frampton

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Donaire

0 Frampton

Opponent Rating Last 3

68.85 Donaire

58.45 Frampton

Trend Score Last 5

20 Donaire

60 Frampton

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

58.67 Donaire

79.76 Frampton

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

28 Donaire

43.45 Frampton

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Donaire

0 Frampton

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

68.85 Donaire

58.45 Frampton

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

50 Donaire

70 Frampton

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Donaire moves up 2 classes.

Frampton moves down 2 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Donaire height: 168.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Frampton height: 165.0cm reach: 157.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Donaire.

Advantage: Donaire +19.0cm

Stance Interaction

Donaire vs orthodox: 42.0

Frampton vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: medium advantage Frampton.

Advantage: Frampton

Style Interaction

Donaire style: Boxer Puncher

Frampton style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral