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Mayer vs Baumgardner 15 Oct 2022 Result: Baumgardner Historical Pick 55.16% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Alycia Baumgardner (S D)

Model pick Alycia Baumgardner 55.16%

Prediction result Correct

Mayer odds 1.4444

Baumgardner odds 3.5000

Mayer implied 69.23%

Baumgardner implied 28.57%

Pick odds 3.5

Pick implied 28.57%

Expected return 1.9308

ROI 93.08%

Edge 26.59%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-23 19:14:21 UTC

Fighter details
Mikaela Mayer
Mikaela Mayer

Score 74.72 · 22-2-0 (5 KO)

Full name Mikaela Joslin Mayer

Age 35 · Rank #50 · Confidence Medium 0.696

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 169cm · US

AB
Alycia Baumgardner

Score 69.14 · 17-1-0 (7 KO)

Full name Alycia Baumgardner

Age 31 · Rank #118 · Confidence Medium 0.624

Stance Orthodox · H/R 168cm / 168cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

47.3 Mayer Confidence High 0.750

76.0 Baumgardner Confidence High 0.770

Punching Accuracy

81.8 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.670

74.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.640

Hand Speed

80.3 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.630

80.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.680

Pace Pressure

84.7 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.710

70.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.630

Defensive Skill

89.5 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.700

72.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.620

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Mayer Confidence High 0.760

75.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.640

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.9 Mayer Confidence High 0.800

78.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.720

Counter Punching

81.3 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.580

79.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.670

Chin

89.5 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.690

73.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.580

Cardio Engine

87.9 Mayer Confidence High 0.800

81.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.740

Style Profile Mayer: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher  vs  Baumgardner: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.580

12.0 Baumgardner Confidence Low 0.470

Out Boxer

44.0 Mayer Confidence High 0.800

21.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.630

Power Slugger

4.0 Mayer Confidence High 0.860

18.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.660

Boxer Puncher

28.0 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.680

36.0 Baumgardner Confidence High 0.770

Counter Puncher

10.0 Mayer Confidence Low 0.450

13.0 Baumgardner Confidence Low 0.420

Stance Advantage Mayer Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Baumgardner Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.690

62.0 Baumgardner Confidence Medium 0.550

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Mayer Confidence Medium 0.690

38.0 Baumgardner Confidence Low 0.420

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Mayer

100 Baumgardner

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Mayer

0 Baumgardner

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Mayer

66.67 Baumgardner

Opponent Rating Last 3

59.67 Mayer

59.67 Baumgardner

Trend Score Last 5

85 Mayer

100 Baumgardner

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Mayer

100 Baumgardner

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

11.9 Mayer

23.33 Baumgardner

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Mayer

66.67 Baumgardner

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

59.67 Mayer

59.67 Baumgardner

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

85 Mayer

100 Baumgardner

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Mayer moves down 4 classes.

Baumgardner moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Baumgardner.

Advantage: Baumgardner

Reach vs Height Delta

Mayer reach: 169.0cm height: 175.0cm delta: -6.0cm

Baumgardner reach: 168.0cm height: 168.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Baumgardner.

Advantage: Baumgardner

Stance Interaction

Mayer advantage against orthodox: 62.0

Baumgardner advantage against orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Mayer style: Out Boxer

Baumgardner style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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